Buffalo Bills

Head Coach: “Sexy” Rexy Ryan (2nd year)
Offensive Coordinator: Greg Roman (2nd year)
Defensive Coordinator: Dennis Thurman (2nd year)

Depth Chart

Quarterback: Tyrod Taylor, EJ Manuel, Cardale Jones
Running Back: Lesean McCoy, Karlos Williams, Mike Gillislee, Jonathon Williams (r)
Wide Receiver: Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Dezmin Lewis (r), Leonard Hankerson, Jarrett Boykin
Tight End: Charles Clay
Kicker: Dan Carpenter
Defense/Spec Teams: 2015-Finished 19th in yards against and 15th in points against. Finished 31st in sacks and 6th in interceptions.

Coaching Philosophy

Rex Ryan loves to run the ball. In his six seasons with the Jets they finished in the top five for rushing attempts five times. In his first season with Buffalo last year, the Bills finished second in the league in rushing attempts. I think it’s fair to claim that the Bills will likely finish in the top top, if not top five in rushing attempts again this season.

With Greg Roman as offensive coordinator, he runs a pretty interesting system as he combines a power running game with spread offense concepts. It’s actually a pretty basic system for the quarterback but a very complex running scheme. He was really successful with this scheme while he was in San Francisco with Colin Kaepernick and Frank Gore, and he has the personnel with Tyrod Taylor and Lesean McCoy for it to be successful in Buffalo.

Fantasy Outlook

Bills Quarterbacks

Tyrod Taylor surprised a lot of people last season and looks to step it up this year.

Last season at this time, many people were talking about whether EJ Manuel or Matt Cassel would win the starting quarterback job in Buffalo and the name Tyrod Taylor was just starting to pop up in conversations. Well, Taylor ended up not only stealing the job, but despite missing two games, finished as the QB15 in fantasy last season. He did it both with his arms and his legs as he threw for over 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns, as well as ran for over 500 yards witn another four rushing touchdowns. He was rather consistent as well which is nice in fantasy as he threw for over 200 yards in eight of his 14 games, but yet flashed his upside as he threw for three touchdowns in four weeks. He may not have thrown for over 300 yards in a game, but since he rushed for over 40 yards in nine weeks, I can cut him a little slack.

Will we see the same performance from his this year? I think yes, but with even some slight improvements. I think they will ask a little more from him in year two and with Karlos Williams suspended the first four games as well as coming into camp 20+ pounds overweight, I think Taylor should be set for a few more pass attempts. I think 3,300-3,500 yards passing with 23-25 touchdowns is realistic to go along with his 500 rushing yards. He could be will be a borderline QB1 with only slight improvements, but yet is currently being drafted as roughly the 19th or 20th quarterback off the board. He can be a very nice value late in drafts this season.

Bills Running Backs

Yup, it does look like Karlos Williams had one too many Twinkies this offseason.

It seems like he should be older, but Lesean McCoy is only 28 years old. Seems crazy, right? McCoy isn’t ready to shut it down yet and with the Bills backfield kind of in shambles right now, I have a feeling he will once again see a heavy workload. Why is the backfield in shambles? First, Karlos Williams showed up to camp 20-25 pounds overweight. He claimed it was from “sympathy eating” with his wife while she was pregnant. Then he became suspended for the first four games of the season due to a marijuana violation. I guess it wasn’t “sympathy eating” but more of a case of the pot-induced, munchies which led to the extra pounds. Then rookie running back, Jonathon Williams was busted for a DUI in the middle of July. He will likely avoid league suspension, but what does it say to the character of a dude who’s smoking dope while his wife is pregnant or for Williams who gets a DUI right before the biggest opportunity of his life? I guess Lesean McCoy’s “all female party” last year and his bar brawl a few months ago weren’t quite so bad after all.  Jesus Christ…this backfield is a joke!

With all the chaos, I think McCoy is in line for 250+ carries this season. In his first season with the Bills, he averaged 4.4 yards per carry and owns a career, 4.6 yards per carry average. If he hits 4.6, which he is very capable of doing, he could push for 1,200 yards in 2016. He’s not a big touchdown guy, but with Karlos Williams missing the first quarter of the season, I think he can get six or seven scores as well. McCoy missed the last four games of the season last year and still had 32 receptions, so 40 catches is a possibility. That makes Lesean McCoy a guy I want to have on my fantasy team this season, and a pick in the late second or early third round is warranted.

With Karlos Williams suspension, it looks like Mike Gillislee will serve as McCoy’s primary backup at least to start the season. Gillislee has a grand total of eight career rushing attempts and eight career receptions, so it’s hard to get excited until we see a little more from him. Personally, I would rather draft Karlos Williams who’s ADP is dropping with the suspension. Rex isn’t shown to hold a grudge, so I think he picks right back up in Week 5 and becomes a regular contributor, McCoy’s handcuff and a nice red zone threat for the Bills.

Bills Wide Receivers

It’s the third year in the league for Sammy Watkins and he’s ready to breakout in 2016.

The big question around the Buffalo Bills’ wide receivers is whether or not Sammy Watkins will be healthy in training camp or for the beginning of the regular season. Watkins underwent surgery on his foot in May and although he recently posted a video of him running a straight line, there is still a question as to when he will be able to make cuts and take hits. Knowing how important Watkins is to the offense, I think Rex Ryan plays it smart and does everything in his power to make sure he’s ready for the season…even if it’s not participating much this preseason. He missed three plus games last season and still finished as the WR20 in PPR leagues. I think he is poised to breakout in a big way in his third year in the league. He was on pace for around 80 receptions last year and now that he has a year of rapport built with Tyrod Taylor, I think he hits 90-95 this season. Watkins had six touchdowns in his first year and nine in his second, so with no other receiving threats, I can also envisioning him having double digit touchdowns as well. From Week 9 though the end of the season, he was the sixth highest scoring wide receiver in the league, so if you like upside, Watkins fits the bill (pun intended). The foot injury may push his draft stock down a little as he’s currently going in the third round of a lot of drafts. I would even consider taking him late in the second, but the third round is a nice place to draft a guy like Watkins.

Robert Woods is an interesting sleeper of mine this year. He missed the last two games last season and played half of the year with a torn groin, but still amassed almost 50 catches for over 500 yards and three touchdowns. He had surgery this offseason to repair his torn groin and reportedly looked explosive in OTAs this summer. He doesn’t have the upside to to be a superstar, but he does possess enough skills to be fantasy worthy and possibly a nice flex play if the chips fall for him this season. I am putting him on my list of late round targets if I find myself a little lacking in the wide receiver department. Finally, keep an eye on Dezmin Lewis this summer. Dez was a seventh round pick in last year’s NFL draft, but is making a name for himself this year. He was named the MVP of Bills’ training camp by the Buffalo News’, Tyler Dunne and has been getting rave reviews from several around the football industry. He’s not draftable as of yet, but definitely a guy to keep an eye on in dynasty leagues or if Watkins or Woods goes down to injury.

Bills Tight Ends

I’m not a big fan of Bills tight end, Charles Clay. He got paid big money to go to Buffalo, but yet struggled to make an impact in the offense. By getting the money, I would think that the Bills thought enough of him to give him a bigger role in the offense, but maybe his skills just aren’t there. If you are in a one tight end league, Clay is nothing better than a low end backup with limited upside. If you draft him in a two tight end league, I expect he is a low end starter but I personally would rather take a guy like Zach Miller, Eric Ebron or Dwayne Allen, who all have much higher upsides in my opinion.

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