New England Patriots

Head coach: Bill Belichick (12th season)
Offensive Coordinator: Josh McDaniels (5th season)
Defensive Coordinator: Matt Patricia (5th season)

Depth Chart

Quarterback: Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo
Running Back: Dion Lewis, LeGarrette Blount, James White, Brandon Bolden
Wide Receiver: Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Chris Hogan, Malcolm Mitchell (r), Nate Washington
Tight End: Rob Gronkowski, Martellus Bennett
Kicker: Stephen Gostkowski
Defense/Spec Teams: Finished 9th in yards against and 10th in points against. Finished 2nd in sacks and 20th in interceptions.

Coaching Philosophy

Bill Belichick has been around for long enough now that we have a pretty good idea of what we can expect from the Patriots this season. First, the Pats run a lot of plays. Over the past five seasons, they have finished fifth, second, first, second and thirteenth in total plays from scrimmage. For fantasy purposes, that’s exactly what you’re looking for. They also pass the ball a ton as they have finished seventh, seventh, fourth and fifth in pass attempts over the last four seasons. There should be plenty of targets to go around for the Patriots’ wide receivers and tight ends. For those of you that have owned some of Belichick’s running backs over the years, you also know that it is also extremely frustrating trying to predict who they are going to feature in the run game. In all honesty, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pats leading rusher this season, isn’t currently even on their roster. Overall, the Patriots should still have plenty of fantasy players that can help out your fantasy team this season, particularly in the passing attack.

Fantasy Outlook

Patriots Quarterbacks

It’s finally over!!!

It’s over…it’s finally over!!! Deflate-gate has finally been decided and Tom Brady will now miss the first four weeks of the regular season. Thank God Almighy and hopefully we will never have to hear about it after Week five of this NFL season. Let’s first state the obvious. When he’s on the field, Brady is one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy football. The problem is that now knowing he will miss the first four games of the season makes it a little more difficult to know where to draft him. Personally, it drops him out of the top five for me. I would feel good knowing that I took him in the seven to ten range, but just know that you better take a backup a little earlier than normal so you can still have a chance to get out of the first month of the season in good shape. You could always draft Jimmy Garoppolo, but there is just not a big enough book on him to quite know what you’re going to get. I would prefer a more proven backup and keep Garoppolo as a potential DFS play.

Patriots Running Backs

For fantasy purposes, there are two Patriots running backs to talk about, Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount. Blount is likely to be the early down back while Lewis will be the primary third down and receiving back. However, Blount suffered a season ending hip injury last December and has missed all of the team’s practices this spring. It’s encouraging that they didn’t draft another running back in the draft, but his health is something to monitor this summer. Last season, he was on pace for about 800-900 yards and eight or so touchdowns so if we assume he’s healthy come the start of the season, I don’t see any reason why he can’t replicate those numbers. There isn’t much competition for him and he is their main red zone threat out of the backfield. Although the Pats have been known to pull shenanigans with their running backs, Blount could be a decent RB4 that could have some decent weeks when he finds the end zone.

I’m ready to take a chance on Dion Lewis this season.

Last year we saw the comeuppance of fifth year, running back Dion Lewis. That is, until he tore his ACL in Week 7 and missed the rest of the season. Before the injury, Lewis was on pace to be a number one fantasy back in PPR leagues. He only averaged seven rushing attempts per game, but he averaged over five receptions which made him PPR gold as he scored 16 or more points in five of the six games he finished. Health will be the main concern for Lewis as although he should be ready for the start of the season, it’s no guarantee. Here’s my fantasy take on Dion Lewis. No one remembers who finishes second through 12th in fantasy leagues, so I’m of the mindset to shoot for the stars and take chances. Win or nothing, baby! He has the ability and opportunity to catch 70+ balls to go along with his meager rushing totals and if healthy, that could make him a huge value at his current ADP in the fourth or fifth rounds. If you prefer to play things safe and conservative, Lewis may not be your guy.

Patriots Wide Receivers

Not only did Dion Lewis miss the second half of last season, but so did wide receiver, Julian Edelman when he missed the last seven games with a broken foot. He did return for the playoffs, but he underwent a second procedure on it this offseason. He should be ready to go for training camp, but make sure to keep an eye on his progress in August. When healthy, Edelman is almost a lock for 90-100 receptions and 1,000 yards but since he’s only completed 16 games once in his seven seasons, you have to account for him to likely miss a few games. For fantasy purposes, I would feel good taking him in the third round of PPR leagues as a WR2.

Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola…who looks like the bigger douchebag?

The Patriots have another oft-injured, white receiver in Danny Amendola who enters his fourth season in New England. Amendola has only played in 16 games twice in his seven year career and on a team deep with receiving options, he could struggle with consistency on a weekly basis. I prefer using him in DFS based on the match ups, but he is nothing better than a late round flier in redraft leagues.

Finally, the Patriots locked up another white receiver, as they signed former Buffalo Bill, Chris Hogan this offseason. Unlike Edelman and Amendola however, Hogan has played in all 16 games in each of his three seasons and is reportedly looking great in OTAs. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if he supplanted Amendola for the number two receiver spot. He’s still nothing more than a late round flier right now, but keep an eye out if he is still lighting it up in training camp as he could be a wide receiver who could give you a few valuable weeks here and there if he steals the gig.

The Patriots selected wide receiver, Malcolm Mitchell from Georgia in the fourth round of the NFL draft this year and although he doesn’t hold a ton of value in redraft leagues, he’s definitely a guy to roster in dynasty leagues. He runs crisp routes and apparently is picking up the complex offense rather quickly, so maybe he is someone to keep an eye on over the next few years. Nate Washington, Aaron Dobson and Keshawn Johnson are all fighting for a spot on the roster with Mitchell, and none hold any fantasy value.

Patriots Tight Ends

Julian Edelman recently attended a UFC event with Tom Brady and Justin Timberlake. Gronk’s comment on Edelman’s Instagram pic is priceless.

I’m not going to spend a ton of time on Rob Gronkowski. He’s the best tight end in the game and he should be good for 80 catches, 1,100 yards and double digit touchdowns. Additionally, I don’t know if there is a person who enjoys life as much as this dude. Feel free to draft him at the end of the first or beginning of the second round in fantasy drafts this season.

The Patriots also picked up tight end, Martellus Bennett formerly of the Bears, but predicting his performance is a little bit harder. Bennett has been very good the last few years and it was just two seasons ago he had 90 receptions. Belichick has shown that his offense can sustain two fantasy productive tight ends when both Gronk and Aaron Hernandez were top, fantasy tight ends, but I don’t expect him to step into the Patriots’ complicated offensive scheme and catch 90 balls. I think 50-60  receptions for 500 or so yards is a realistic goal making him a TE2. I don’t feel great about him this year, but he could be a decent, higher upside backup if you decide to draft two tight ends.

You can follow me on Twitter @fantasygeek37 and email me questions at steve@fightingchancefantasy.com.

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