New York Jets

Head Coach: Todd Bowles (2nd year)
Offensive Coordinator: Chan Gailey (2nd year)
Defensive Coordinator: Kacy Rodgers (2nd year)

Depth Chart

Quarterback: Geno Smith, Bryce Petty, Christian Hackenberg (r)
Running Back: Matt Forte, Bilal Powell, Khiry Robinson, Zac Stacy
Wide Receiver: Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, Quincy Enunwa, Devin Smith, Kenbrell Thompkins
Tight Ends: Jace Amaro, Kellen Davis
Kicker: Nick Folk
Defense/Spec Teams: Finished 4th in yards against and 9th in points against. Finished 12th in sacks and 5th in interceptions.

Coaching Philosophy

Year one of the Todd Bowles/Chan Gailey/Kacy Rodgers regime was a success. They improved from four wins in 2014 to ten in 2015, improved upon most defensive categories and increased offensive output by almost 50 yards per game. On the offensive side, the most notable improvement came from the passing attack as Ryan Fitzpatrick and company were able to improve from 184 yards per game passing in 2014 to over 250 yards per game in 2015. Chan Gailey runs a spread offense and the typically run happy, Jets offense actually ran the most four wide receiver sets in the NFL last season. We still don’t know if Ryan Fitzpatrick will be back this season, but even if it’s Geno Smith at the helm, with the success they had last season, I think we see plenty more of the same in 2015.

Fantasy Outlook

Jets Quarterbacks

I wonder if Geno Smith gave this same mean mug right before he got punched in the mouth last offseason.

The big question for the Jets this offseason is whether or not Ryan Fitzpatrick will be re-signed. The two parties have been in a stalemate for the last few months and if they can’t come to terms, it looks like it may be Geno Smith who takes over at quarterback this season. For purposes of this article, if Fitzpatrick comes back, I think we can expect similar results from last season. Geno is the harder one to predict, so let’s take a little closer at him.

The Jets took Geno Smith in the second round of the 2013 draft and he played in all 16 games as a rookie. The following season he played in 14 games but then due to a sucker punch in training camp last season, he lost his starting job to Ryan Fitzpatrick who made the most of it. Through his three seasons, there are some good things and bad things we can take from his game.

Good

• He was very good on deep throws. His rookie season, he finished seventh in the NFL in accuracy percentage in throws of 20 yards or more down the field.
• He was very good on third downs, scoring a positive rating from Pro Football Focus on third down attempts and third down attempts against blitzes.
• His rookie year he also broke the pocket on almost 10% of pass plays, which was fifth highest in the league. This could be bad for “NFL” play, but for “Fantasy” purposes, this could be a good thing and add to his rushing stats.

Bad

• Struggles with accuracy and has a career 57.9% completion percentage.
• In particular, he’s graded out very poorly on Pro Football Focus for passes in the one to ten yard range.
• Holds the ball way too long, which can lead to too many sacks.

Here’s my take on Geno. He looked good in his one game last season as he went 27 for 42 for 265 yards, with two touchdowns and one interception. He now has had a year of Chan Gailey’s offense under his belt and he has the ability to be a decent signal caller. He threw for about 3,000 yards his rookie campaign (his only full season) on a putrid 55% completion rate, so with more experience, I think 3,500-3,700 yards passing with another 300 rushing yards is very doable for the fourth year quarterback. I also think that 20 passing touchdowns and five or so rushing touchdowns are possible if he plays the entire season. However, his tendency to hold on to the ball and break the pocket make him a little higher injury risk than most as well. His tendency to struggle with shorter routes and be better at longer routes may make him more of a boom or bust option each week if he hits a few of the bombs. Personally, I think he ranks right outside of the QB2 range (below 24), but he does have enough upside that if he starts out the season strong, I would make a waiver claim for him early.

Jets Running Backs

Matt Forte brings his talents to New York…just make sure to temper you expectations for him this season.

Chris Ivory has departed the Jets for the Jaguars and in his place comes former Bears running back, Matt Forte. Forte is now 30 years old and has over 2,500 career touches, so it will be interesting to see how the next year or two of his career in New York goes. The Jets have claimed that they want to get Bilal Powell more involved with the offense and with an aging back like Forte, I think they would be wise to ease his load and get Powell some touches. Forte’s carries have gone down in each of the last three seasons and over the last two years, he averaged 3.9 and 4.1 yards per carry. He’s not the running back he once was.

Last season the Jets had 448 rush attempts, which was good for tenth in the league. I think if the Jets had their way, they would still like to get Forte around 200 carries. Bilal Powell had 176 rushing attempts in 2013 but only averaged around four yards per carry with that workload. If they could get him 125-150 attempts, which I think they will, he could be very fantasy relevant. I think we can see Forte rush for in between 800-900 yards with about six or seven touchdowns, while Powell comes in close behind with about 600 and four or five scores.

How the Jets handle running back, receiving duties is what’s hard for me to predict. Both are very good backs catching the ball out of the backfield and last season each had over 40 receptions. I don’t think that one particular person will run away with third down/receiving duties, so I’m going to play it safe and say each back will likely catch around 40 balls. Right now, Forte is being drafted as a high end RB2 roughly in the third round while Powell is being drafted as a low end RB3 or high end RB4, roughly in the tenth round. Give me the value of Powell and I don’t see myself owning very many shares of Matt Forte in 2016.

Jets Wide Receivers

Eric Decker may be a pretty boy, but he knows how to play wide receiver.

Last season, the Jets did very well at getting Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker the ball. Chan Gailey made it a priority to to utilize the best weapons he had and it showed when Marshall finished as the number three fantasy wide receiver in PPR leagues and Decker finished 14th. Not too shabby (said in my best Adam Sandler impression). Can we expect the same production again this season? I think it’s close. I am a little concerned about Brandon Marshall however. He is more of the possession receiver in the Jets offense and the with the way the Geno struggles at the shorter routes, I think he could see a slight reduction in completions this year. Here’s an interesting stat. Over the last eight seasons, Marshall has finished in the bottom three people in drops in six of those eight years. The way that Geno struggles with accuracy, if he doesn’t put the ball close to Marshall, that could also lead to more drops and less completions. I still think he has a good year, but I think he’s closer to 90 receptions for 1,100 yards with eight to ten scores than he will be to his monster year last season. I feel Decker stays about the same with maybe even a slight improvement as he hits 80-85 catches for 1,200 yards and double digit touchdowns. Marshall is currently being drafted in the late second or early third round while Decker is going in the sixth. I love Decker and his value a lot this year!

Last season the Jets used second year wide receiver, Quincy Enunwa as a hybrid slot receiver/tight end role and it’s expected that he will maintain that same role this year. They also have big play guy, Devin Smith who is entering his second year in the league. However, Smith tore his ACL in December and it is very likely that he will begin the season on the PUP list. Neither are worth drafting in redraft leagues, but if Smith looks like he will be activated midway through the season, he could be the deep threat that Geno Smith has shown he can hit. Keep an eye on him as a possible free agent addition when he nears his return.

Jets Tight Ends

I’m not going to waste my time, or yours, on the Jets’ tight ends. Neither Jace Amaro or Kellen Davis should have much of a fantasy impact this season and can be left alone on draft day.

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