Houston Texans

Head Coach: Bill O’Brien (3rd year)
Offensive Coordinator: George Godsey (4th year)
Defensive Coordinator: Romeo Crennel (3rd year)

Depth Chart

Quarterback: Brock Osweiler, Brandon Weeden, Tom Savage
Runnning Back: Lamar Miller, Alfred Blue, Jonathan Grimes, Tyler Ervin (r)
Wide Receiver: DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller (r), Jaelen Strong, Cecil Shorts, Braxton Miller (r)
Tight End: Ryan Griffin, C.J. Fiedorowicz
Kicker: Nick Novak
Defense/Spec Teams: 2015-finished third in yards against; finished seventh in points against. Finished fifth in sacks and 13th in interceptions.

Coaching Philosophy

While George Godsey is the offensive coordinator, it’s head coach Bill O’Brien who calls the shots for Houston’s offense. The Texans should have a balanced offense this season as they brought in Lamar Miller to lead the rushing attack, but make no mistake. New quarterback, Brock Osweiler will have a lot asked of him this season. O’Brien’s offense is based on making adjustments at the line of scrimmage to what the defense gives you and for a young quarterback with young receivers, he will have to adjust quickly to the new system. If he picks it up quickly, the Texans could have a very good offense. If he struggles, it could be a long season for the Texans’ fantasy players.

Fantasy Outlook

Texans Quarterbacks

Welcome to Texas, partner!!!

One of the priorities for the Texans this offseason was to upgrade their quarterback position. They think they did that by stealing fifth year quarterback, Brock Osweiler away from the Denver Broncos. We haven’t seen much of Osweiler since he’s been tucked away on the Broncos bench behind future hall of famer, Peyton Manning, but when given the opportunity last season, he showed that the game wan’t too big for him. He started seven games in place of Manning and threw for at least 230 yards in six of those seven contests. He was replaced in Week 17 by Manning, and he ultimately led them to the Super Bowl, but the Texans had seen enough to make Osweiler their franchise quarterback.

Osweiler goes from having Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders to dynamic, DeAndre Hopkins so he has a nice weapon to work with. He’s a smart kid and I expect a few growing pains at first, but he has the potential to be a QB2 in fantasy football this season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him top 3,700 yards and 25+ touchdowns and he is definitely someone to keep an eye on and see how he can handle his new starting gig. Brandon Weeden will be his primary backup and even if Osweiler goes down, you can do better than Weeden.

Texans Running Backs

Lamar Miller is going to make fantasy owners very happy this year.

Out with Arian Foster, in with a Lamar Miller. I have been a big fan of Miller’s for a few years now and it will be interesting to see how Houston uses their new weapon. In my opinion, he was underutilized during his time in Miami and he has all the tools to become a consistent, top five fantasy running back if given the opportunity. I think he will. While in Miami, Miller only topped 200 rushing attempt once (216), despite averaging a very nice 4.6 yards per carry over his career. This is Bill O’Brien’s third year in Houston, and although last year they were forced to mix and match a bunch of backup running backs, in his first year there he gave Arian Foster 260 rush attempts. If Miller gets 250+ rushes, watch out!

Here’s my prediction for Miller in 2016. I think he gets 240-250 rushes for 1,100+ yards and ten total touchdowns. He’s had nine and ten total touchdowns the past two seasons, so I don’t think that an unreasonable estimate. Miller is also a very capable receiver out of the backfield. He had 38 catches in 2014 and 47 in 2015, so it’s very feasible he sees a similar numbers this year. Miller is without a doubt a number one fantasy running back this season and should be drafted late in the first, or early in the second round of fantasy drafts this year.

After Foster went down last year, neither Alfred Blue , nor Jonathon Grimes lit the world on fire, so I would gander that we see a running back by committee approach where Blue handles early down work and Grimes handles passing downs if something happens to Miller. The Texans also drafted Tyler Ervin in the fourth round of the draft this year to add depth. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ second best receiving back in this year’s rookie class, but he is poor in pass blocking and doesn’t project as an every down back. He could be a nice change of pace back for the Texans, but his fantasy outlook this season looks to be minimal.

Texans Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins has some mad skills and shouldn’t last very long in fantasy drafts this season.

When it comes to the Texans’ wide receiver unit, things begin and end with superstar, DeAndre Hopkins. Andre Johnson departed last season, leaving Hopkins to be the “The Man”, and he didn’t disappoint. Hopkins finished as the fourth highest scoring fantasy wide receiver in PPR leagues and tallied 111 catches for over 1,500 yards and 11 touchdowns. Welcome to the fantasy elite, DeAndre. However, I’m not sure that he can repeat that performance. Due to the fact that Arian Foster was injured most of the season and they didn’t have many other quality receiving threats, Hopkins was able to garner a staggering 192 receptions last season. With the addition of Lamar Miller and draft picks Will Fuller and Braxton Miller, I think that he will see a decrease in targets in 2016. I still think he sees enough to get him 95-100 receptions and since he still averaged 13.7 yards per catch with bad quarterback play last season, I think he could easily get 14-14.5 yards per reception in 2016 and that would put him back over 1,300 yards this season. I don’t think that he will see a significant reduction in touchdowns though, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get double digit touchdowns again. All be told, Hopkins will be a stud again this season and should be drafted in the first half of the first round in drafts this year.

After Hopkins however, there isn’t’ much fantasy relevance from the other receivers in normal, ten or twelve team leagues. The Texans spent a first round pick on speedster, Will Fuller out of Notre Dame and he should see quite a bit of time lined up opposite of Hopkins. He runs a blazing fast, 4.32 40 yard dash, but has short arms, small hands and has a problem with drops. He will likely serve as a threat to stretch the field rather than a target hog who catches a lot of balls. I think the Texans would be happy if he hit 50 receptions for 600-700 yards this season and he will be the type of player like Mike Wallace who are better in standard leagues rather than PPR leagues.

The Texans also selected former Ohio State quarterback and wide receiver, Braxton Miller in the third round of the NFL draft. Miller is a heck of an athlete and is a blast to watch, and projects to be the eventual slot receiver/gadget player in the Houston offense. I don’t think he sees enough work this season to be fantasy relevant in redraft leagues, but he is someone you should definitely consider in keeper and dynasty leagues. I think Houston would rather see veteran, Cecil Shorts bring some stability to the offense and allow Miller to come along at his own pace. That being said, Shorts should be off of your fantasy radar in drafts as well with Fuller, Miller, Shorts and even second year receiver Jaelen Strong all fighting for targets opposite Hopkins in 2016.

Texans Tight Ends

Not much to see here. Ryan Griffin looks to be the primary tight end for Houston this season and probably won’t help out your fantasy squad at all. He missed half of last season with a sprained MCL, but even when he did play, he wasn’t very effective. He played in eight games and only had more than three catches in one of them and only had more than 40 yards receiving once as well. Even in two tight end leagues, you can do better.

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