Jacksonville Jaguars

Head Coach: Gus Bradley (4th year)
Offensive Coordinator:  Greg Olson (2nd year)
Defensive Coordinator: Todd Walsh (1st year)

Depth Chart

Quarterback: Blake Bortles, Chad Henne
Running Back: Chris Ivory, TJ Yeldon, Denard Robinson, Jonas Gray
Wide Receiver: Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, Rashad Greene, Marqise Lee
Tight End: Julius Thomas, Marcedes Lewis
Kicker: Jason Myers
Defense/Spec Team: 2015-finished 31st in yards against; 24th in points against. Finished 20th in sacks and 26th in Interceptions.

Coaching Philosophy

With head coach, Gus Bradley being a defensive minded head coach, last season Greg Olson was brought in as the offensive coordinator to kickstart their offense. With success in the past working with the quarterbacks Drew Brees in college, and helping guys like Marc Bulger and Josh Freeman to career years, his main objective was to develop first round pick, Blake Bortles into the franchise quarterback they had hoped. Well, mission accomplished as he helped Bortles throw for almost 4,500 yards and 35 touchdowns en route to becoming the 4th highest scoring fantasy quarterback in 2015.

The passing attack was flowing smoothly, but fellow top draft pick TJ Yeldon never shifted into second gear as the Jags finished 27th in rushing last season. I’m sure getting the rushing game going will be a priority because with the Jags’ defense finishing 31st in yards against last season and the best way to keep the defense off the field is with a good rushing attack. Chris Ivory was brought in to help Yeldon, and with Bortles having another year of experience under his belt, I expect good things out of their offense in 2016.

Fantasy Outlook

Jaguars Quarterbacks

That’s the look of intensity, right there folks…

Last season we saw the emergence of Blake Bortles in Jacksonville. He went from borderline fantasy relevant to number four overall fantasy quarterback in his sophomore season and looks to keep the train rolling into year number three. With the addition of running back free agent, Chris Ivory and TJ Yeldon now having a year of experience under his belt, I don’t think it would be a surprise if we saw the Jags throw a little less in 2016. He also has a 58.6% completion percentage and has thrown for 35 interceptions in his first two seasons and although he threw for almost 4,500 yards last year, there are still some areas he could use some work on. I think he will be closer to 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns this year, and while Bortles still has the talent and the weapons to be a QB1 this year, I would feel better taking him as a lower end QB1.

Jaguars Running Backs

Chris Ivory is not going to make things easy for TJ Yeldon to be the fantasy producer many thought he would be.

For fantasy purposes, I think I’m staying far away from the Jaguars’ running back situation this season. Last year they drafted TJ Yeldon in the second round in hopes he could be their future bell cow, running back. After one season, they decided to call in reinforcements and picked up free agent, running back Chris Ivory. Both running backs have similar body types. Yeldon is 6’1′ and 225 pounds while Ivory is 6’0′ and 222 pounds. However, both possess some different skills that I think will lead to a split work load. Let’s look at three different things…early down rushing, receiving and goal line work and see if we can predict how things will fall for the Jaguars back field this season.

Early Down Carries. Last season, TJ Yeldon struggled running between the tackles. At times it seemed like he was running in quicksand and he finished with 4.1 yards per carry. Ivory wasn’t a ton better playing for the Jets, but he finished with 4.3 yards per carry and owns a career 4.6 yards per carry over his six seasons in the NFL. With the Jags wanting to keep Yeldon fresh over the course of the season, I think Ivory gets more early down work. Advantage Ivory

Receiving. When it comes to catching the ball in the backfield, Chris Ivory has not been a major threat over the years. In six seasons in the league, he has a grand total of 53 receptions on 76 targets. That can be a little misleading because through his career he’s had guys like Darren Sproles and Bilal Powell on his team who were receiving specialists, but if he excelled at catching the ball, he would have had a few more receptions. Yeldon on the other hand showed he can be effective out of the backfield as he had 36 receptions on 46 targets in his rookie season. While Denard Robinson may steal a few receptions on gadget plays, I think Yeldon catches the most balls among Jaguars’ running backs in 2016. Advantage Yeldon

Goal Line Carries. This is an easy one. The Jags didn’t trust Yeldon at all last season with carries near the end zone as he only had four carries inside of the five yard line while Ivory led the league with 17 carries inside the five. For fantasy owners that invested an early pick on Yeldon last year, it was one of the most frustrating things of the season. I think the main reason they brought Ivory in was to make the Jags more efficient near the goal line. Advantage Ivory.

The last two seasons the Jaguars rushed 360 and 354 rushing attempts as a team which was in the bottom third of the NFL. Bringing in Ivory, I think they would like to see that number closer to 400 this year. I can see Ivory getting a majority of carries and seeing roughly 200 carries for him and Yeldon getting 150 or so (with the rest divvied up between the other backs and quarterbacks). If Ivory hit 4.5 yards per carry, he could get 900 or so yards and I’m going to give him six to eight touchdowns. If Yeldon is closer to 4.5 yards per carry as well, he could rush for around 700 yards, but I think four for five touchdowns is a more realistic goal for the sophomore. Yeldon could get 40 receptions, so when it comes down to fantasy production, I think both of these guys could cannibalize each other’s production. Right now they are both being drafted in roughly the seventh round which is appropriate, and if you were in a PPR league, I would lean towards Yeldon while if you were in a standard league, I would give the edge to Ivory.

Jaguars Wide Receivers

I have heard several people make the comparison of Allen Robinson to Dez Bryant over the last year or two, and last season Robinson showed why as he had 80 receptions for 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns and finished sixth among wide receivers in PPR leagues. At 6’3′ and 215 pounds, he has the size to be a consistent threat annually both between the twenties, and in the red zone. I do think that the 17.5 yards per reception will come down a little bit, as will the touchdowns, but another 80 catch year is likely, with 1,200 yards and ten touchdowns, still making him a nice, WR1 for your fantasy team. He should be drafted in the early to mid-second round of drafts this season.

Allen Hurns had a lot to smile about after his breakout season in 2015.

Whereas it wan’t a huge surprise to see Allen Robinson breakout, it was a little more shocking to see what Allen Hurns accomplished for the Jaguars last season.  Hurns finished with 64 receptions for 1,031 yards and ten touchdowns and finished as the 18th wide receiver in PPR leagues last year. In 15 games played, he had over 100 yards receiving five times, a touchdown in nine of those games and scored double digit fantasy points in ten games (PPR scoring). On fantasyfootballcalculater.com, Hurns was drafted as the 63rd wide receiver off the board and he helped many owners reach the playoffs last year. I have my doubts he can replicate his success from last year however. First of all, with the addition of Chris Ivory, I think the Jaguars are going to try and focus on establishing a more effective run game in 2016. This year they drafted defensive back, Jalen Ramsey in the first round as well as first round talent-linebacker, Myles Jack in the second round of the draft and they also get first round pick, defensive end Dante Fowler back from injury this year. I expect their defense to be much improved which should cause less shootouts for the Jags and less potential opportunities for Hurns. I think Robinson will still get his, but a slight decrease in volume and touchdowns for Hurns could be in store. I think 55+ catches for 900 yards and seven or eight touchdowns could be in store for him and that makes me a little nervous to draft at his current fifth round average draft position.

Right now,there is a battle between Rashad Greene and Marqise Lee for the third wide receiver job in Jacksonville. Lee is more talented, but has been injury stricken his first couple years in the league. However, Greene isn’t going to go away easily. For fantasy purposes, neither are worth owning in 12 team leagues, but Lee could be an interesting guy to watch if he wins the job and can stay healthy. Put him on your watch list as of now though.

Jaguars Tight Ends

Julius Thomas started off last season missing the first the first four weeks with a broken hand, but as the season went on, it seemed like he and Blake Bortles started developing a nice chemistry. In his first five games, he only had one touchdown and more than three receptions only once. Over the past seven weeks though, he had four touchdowns and caught five or more passes in four of the seven games. Reports are than Thomas is spending a lot of time with Bortles this summer trying to work on their chemistry and I have a feeling that Thomas could be in for a good year. He’s always a threat in the end zone, so I think 60 catches for 600+ yards are doable and he has a chance to contribute double digit touchdowns. He’s being drafted as a low end TE1 right now but has the upside of a top five tight end, which makes him a nice guy to target in drafts this season.

You can follow me on Twitter @fantasygeek37 and email me questions at steve@fightingchancefantasy.com.

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