Indianapolis Colts

Head Coach: Chuck Pagano (5th year)
Offensive Coordinator: Rob Chudzinski (1st year)
Defensive Coordinator: Ted Monachino (1st year)

Depth Chart

Quarterback: Andrew Luck, Scott Tolzien
Running Back: Frank Gore, Robert Turbin, Jordan Todman, Josh Ferguson (r)
Wide Receiver: TY Hilton, Donte Moncrief, Phillip Dorsett
Tight End: Dwayne Allen, Jack Doyle
Kicker: Adam Vinitieri
Defense/Spec Teams: 2015 finished 26th in yards against and 25th in points against. Finished 22nd in sacks and 6th in interceptions.

Coaching Philosophy

Here’s the deal. It doesn’t really matter what the offensive philosophy is in Indianapolis this year. If they want to win, they are going to have to throw the ball and they are going to have to throw the ball a lot. They finished in the bottom third in the league in both points against and yards against, and did nothing major to address this. They have a poor offensive line and a 33 year old running back in Frank Gore, who has very little quality depth behind him. Finally, although he had a poor, injury plagued season in 2015, the strength of their team is in quarterback, Andrew Luck and the Colts receiving corps. The Colts are going to be in a lot of shootouts this season and if they want to compete, they are going to have to score a lot of points in 2016.

Although this is Rob Chudzinski’s first full year as offensive coordinator, it is his third with the team in various capacities including taking over offensive coordinator duties in Week 9 last year when Pep Hamiliton was released of his duties. One interesting thing about Chud is that he likes to get the tight end involved in the receiving game. He has had success with the likes of Kellen Winslow Jr., Jeremy Shockey, Jordan Cameron and Greg Olsen in the past and that could mean that Dwayne Allen may be more involved in the game plan than he has in the past.

Fantasy Outlook

Colts Quarterbacks

For those fantasy owners who buy into the theory that’s it’s ok to spend an early round pick on a quarterback, they probably couldn’t have been more disappointed if they drafted Andrew Luck last year. Luck was plagued with poor offensive line performance which led to rushed throws and bad decision making and resulted in way too many interceptions. He also suffered a rib injury early in the season which forced him to miss Weeks 4 and 5 and ultimately, he lacerated his kidney in Week 9 that kept him out the rest of the season. Overall, Luck and fantasy owners are best forgetting what happened last season.

Andrew Luck just became the highest paid player in the NFL, but maybe more importantly…what they hell is wrong with the color of owner, Jim Irsay’s skin!!!

Even though it was a rough season, there are still some signs of encouragement heading into the 2016 season. First of all, Luck just signed a new six year, $140 million dollar deal, which made him the highest paid player in football and guarantees the offense will go through him for years to come. Even though he struggled in 2015, when he was on the field, he still showed the upside that fantasy owners drool over. In the seven games that he appeared in, Luck threw for over 230 yards in every game and also had two or more touchdowns in seven of the eight contests. Not only that, but he was on pace to rush for over 400 yards, making him a nice dual threat quarterback. Finally, Indy will have to pass the ball a lot this season to stay in games, and with weapons like Hilton, Moncrief, Dorsett and Allen, Luck should easily regain his position as one of the top fantasy quarterbacks this season. I think 4,200+ yards with 33-35 touchdowns is within reach and although he is very capable of running the ball, I think they will try to limit him to keep him healthy, resulting in only 250 yards or so on the ground.

Colts Running Backs

Frank Gore may be old, but he still has another season or two left in him.

Frank Gore is now 33 years old and and likely will once again be a work horse back for the Colts. Last season he finished as the RB16 in PPR leagues and narrowly missed out on his fifth consecutive 1,000 yard season (967). Not only that, but even at 33 years old, he has still had over 250 carries in five consecutive seasons and with not much else behind him on the depth chart, he could run for 250 carries again this season.

Just because he may get a lot of work though, doesn’t necessarily mean he should be a fantasy target for you. The offensive line in Indy isn’t that great and that showed as he ran for a career low 3.7 yards per carry in 2015. He also failed to hit 100 yards rushing in any game last season as well. At 33 years old, combined with poor blocking,  I fear he doesn’t have many big plays left in him. That being said, he is currently being drafted in the seventh round of mock drafts according to average draft position data on fantasyfootballcalculator.com and for the volume he is likely to see, I can get behind drafting him in the seventh or eighth round of fantasy drafts to plug into your flex position.

Who Gore’s primary backup will be, is going to be a battle going into training camp this year. The early favorites are Jordan Todman and Robert Turbin. Neither are necessarily sexy options as neither have ever had over 100 yards in a season or possess any special skills. Maybe the most likely to win the job is undrafted, free agent rookie, Josh Ferguson. Ferguson is 5’10’, 200 pounds and ran a 4.48 40 at the combine. He has drawn comparisons to Dion Lewis of the Patriots and even if Gore is healthy, he could see a little third down work to get acclimated to the game. I wouldn’t feel comfortable drafting any of the three in 12 team leagues as of now, but if one of them clearly wins the job this summer, they could make a nice handcuff for the 33 year old Gore.

Colts Wide Receivers

The Colts have a nice trio of wide receivers and at the core of them is TY Hilton. It seems as though Hilton has been around forever, but he’s only entering his fifth season and has been extremely consistent. He has now had over 1,000 yards receiving in three consecutive seasons and had five to seven touchdowns each year. He did drop from 82 to 69 receptions last year, but considering the Colts were playing quarterbacks that they picked up off the street that week at times last season, we can likely chalk that up to poor quarterback play. I think we could see close to a career year for Hilton and 85+ catches for 1,300-1,400 yards is very doable and he should be a high end WR2 in 2016.

Donte Moncrief is one of my favorite, wide receiver targets this season.

The receiver who intrigues me the most for the Colts however, is third year wide receiver, Donte Moncrief. Moncrief had a very nice season last year as he doubled his catch total from his rookie season and had 64 receptions for 733 yards and six touchdowns. We all know that the third year has been historically a big year for receivers to break out and Moncrief has the opportunity to cash in this season. Whereas Hilton and Phillip Dorsett are 5’10’ or shorter, Moncrief is 6’2′, 222 pounds and can be a nice possession/red zone target for Luck. Moncrief is currently being drafted in the sixth round as the 31st wide receiver off the board and he has the upside to shatter that ADP. I am going to be making an effort to get as many shares of him that I can in leagues this season.

Finally, the only other receiver with fantasy relevance on the Colts is Phillip Dorsett. Dorsett enters his second year and is a big play waiting to happen. He has 4.33 speed, very explosive and has to be accounted for by defenses. Head coach, Chuck Pagano has said that they need to be more creative to get the ball in his hands, so maybe even a role similar to Tavon Austin’s role in St. Louis may be in store. He will be a better fantasy player in standard leagues versus PPR leagues as I think both Hilton and Moncrief will be Luck’s primary targets, but Dorsett is still worth a late round pick regardless of format.

Colts Tight Ends

With Coby Fleener finally out of town, it looks like it will be time for fifth year, tight end Dwayne Allen to get his opportunity to show he can handle the load on his own. Allen is a three down tight end and should be on the field a lot this season…if he can stay healthy that is, which has been a problem for him in the past. Offensive coordinator, Rob Chudzinski loves to include tight ends into his offense and Allen has the size and ability to be a favorite red zone target for Andrew Luck. With Coby Fleener leaving for the land of the rising sun, I think Allen has a chance to catch for 500-600 yards with 8+ touchdowns. If your strategy this year is to wait until late to draft a tight end, Allen should be one guy you keep on your short list of targets.

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