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2016 Fantasy Football Team Preview: Oakland Raiders

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Oakland Raiders

Head Coach: Jack Del Rio (2nd year)
Offensive Coordinator: Bill Musgrave (2nd year)
Defensive Coordinator: Ken Norton Jr. (2nd year)

Depth Chart

Quarterback: Derek Carr, Matt McGloin, Connor Cook (r)
Running Back: Latavius Murray, DeAndre Washington (r), Roy Helu, Taiwan Jones
Wide Receiver: Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, Seth Roberts, Andre Holmes
Tight End: Clive Walford, Mychal Rivera
Kicker: Sebastian Janikowski
Defense/Spec Teams: 2015-finished 21st in yards against; 21st in points against (14th in sacks; 13th in INTs)

Raiders 2013 (NFL rank) 2014 (NFL Rank) 2015 (NFL Rank)
Total Yards 333.8 yds/game (23rd) 282.2 yds/game (32nd) 333.5 yds/game (24th)
Total Passing 208.8 yds/game (24th) 204.7 yds/game (26th) 242.4 yds/game (16th)
Total Rushing 125.0 yds/game (12th) 77.5 yds/game (32nd) 91.1 yds/game (28th)

Coaching Philosophy

Bill Musgrave’s first year as offensive coordinator should be considered a success. The Raiders finished dead last in the league in total offense in 2014 and he was able to take them from 282 yards per game in 2014 and increase it by about 50 yards to 333 yards per game last season. He also was able to continue the growth of young quarterback, Derek Carr as he was able to improve in almost every statistical category from his freshman to sophomore year.

So what should we expect this year from the Raiders offense in 2016? I have a feeling that we will see a heavy dose of the run game this season for a few reasons. First, the Raiders have vastly improved their defense with the addition of pass rusher, Bruce Irvin, safety Reggie Nelson, cornerback Seth Smith and first round draft pick, safety Karl Joseph.  The Raiders shouldn’t have to score as many points this season and possibly even have leads in quite a few games so game flow may dictate that they can hopefully lean on the run in the second half of games.

Secondly, the Raiders have an improved offensive line, particularly with the addition of run blocking extraordinaire guard, Kelechi Osemele of Baltimore. Run blocking was a definite weakness of the team last year as Latavius Murray frequently had nowhere to run, so hopefully he finds more running room this season. Profootball focus has the Raiders as the second best offensive line in the NFL, so I expect to see an improvement in the rushing attack.

Finally, the Raiders drafted DeAndre Washington who could help take some of the load off of Latavius’ shoulders. He didn’t have a 100 yard rushing game after Week 8 last season so the addition of Washington may keep both fresh and improve upon the 91 yards per game rushing from 2015. I still think that Derek Carr will repeat his performance from last season, but an improvement in the running game is coming.

Fantasy Outlook

Raiders Quarterbacks

Derek Carr 2013 2014 2015
Games Played 16 16
Pass Yards 3,270 3,987
Pass TDs 21 32
Interceptions 12 13
Rush Yards 92 138
Rush TDs 0 0
Look at those muscles! Maybe if this football things doesn't work out, Derek Carr can fight in the UFC.

Look at those muscles! Maybe if this football things doesn’t work out, Derek Carr can fight in the UFC.

Derek Carr showed improvement almost across the board last season. He improved his passing yards by over 700 yards, went from throwing 21 touchdowns in 2014 to 32 in 2015 and improved his completion percentage from 58.1% to 61.1% as well. Overall, he showed that he can be the franchise quarterback that the Raiders hoped he would be when they drafted him a few years ago.

Will he take the next big step and become an elite fantasy quarterback this season? I think that’s asking a little too much of the third year quarterback. The Raiders ranked 24th in offensive plays from scrimmage last season and for the reasons I mentioned above, I think the running game may see some improvements, while we see similar production from Carr and the passing attack. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, though. Carr finished as the QB13 last season in fantasy, so even if his production is stagnant this year, he’s still a borderline QB1 for fantasy purposes. His floor his higher than some and he does have the upside that I like in a fantasy quarterback, so if you decide to wait on drafting a signal caller or want a high end backup, Carr should be a guy you target in your fantasy draft this year.

As far as backups, neither Matt McGloin nor Connor Cook are draft worthy this season. McGloin looks to be the favorite to serve as the immediate backup for Carr, but even if he has to play a few games, he doesn’t factor to be a fantasy difference maker. Cook is an interesting long-term project, but as long as he’s on the Raiders, he figures to at best, serve as Derek Carr’s backup. By the way, Connor Cook’s dad is a big “shit head”. Don’t believe me? Check out this article from deadspin.

Raiders Running Backs

Latavius Murray 2013 2014 2015
Games Played 15 16
Attempts 82 266
Yards 424 1,066
Yards/Attempt 5.2 4
Rush TDs 2 6
Receptions 17 41
Rec Yards 143 232
Rec TDs 0 0
I was high on Latavius Murray last year and I may like him even more this season.

I was high on Latavius Murray last year and I may like him even more this season.

Last season I was very high on Raiders running back, Latavius Murray and while I was disappointed as an owner, he still finished as the 10th best fantasy running back in 2015 in PPR leagues. His success was filled on volume however, as he finished third in the league in rushing attempts behind only Adrian Peterson and Doug Martin. I was frustrated though because although he got the volume, he only rushed for over 100 yards twice last year and in eight of his sixteen games, he scored less than 10 fantasy points. I think that changes a bit this season. With an improved offensive line, I think he can become a more efficient runnier and easier outperform his 4.0 yards per carry last season. I also expect him to improve upon his six touchdowns as well. At 230 pounds, even if the rookie, DeAndre Washington carves out a role in the offense, as a 200 pound rookie, I think Del Rio will give the goal line work to the veteran, Murray. I think 1,100 yards or so with eight or nine touchdowns could be in line for Murray in 2016.

As mentioned, the Raiders selected rookie running back, DeAndre Washington to help the Raiders get their run game on track. Washington has gotten a lot of hype, especially after GM Reggie McKenzie stated that he was a “complete back”. He may be a complete back, but I see him primarily getting his work on third downs this season. He’s a little undersized, but Pro Football Focus states that he’s a NFL-ready blocker and he finished with the ninth best blocking grade in college football last season, only allowing three quarterback pressures. He had over 30 receptions in each of his last three seasons, so I feel Murray will handle the early down work, while the rookie comes in on passing downs. He will hold a little value in PPR leagues, but if Latavius goes down, he could be one of the better handcuffs in the game, and that makes him worth drafting in most leagues, if nothing more than a handcuff for Murray owners.

Roy Helu and Taiwan Jones are dead to me and should be dead to you as well.

Raiders Wide Receivers

The Raiders were hoping to make Derek Carr and Amari Cooper the face of their offense for many, many years and they didn’t disappoint last year. In Cooper’s rookie season, he caught 72 balls for over 1,000 yards and chipped in six touchdowns as well. It wasn’t all roses however, as Cooper finished tied for second in the league in drops and except for a big game in Week 13 against the Packers, he seemed to fade down the stretch. With a year now in the league, I think he now knows what he needs to do to keep his body going all 17 weeks and will work on addressing the drops as well. A year in the books now should help his comfort level with Derek Carr as well, so I expect an even better season for Cooper in year two. I think it’s very realistic to expect 80 receptions for around 1,200  and eight or so touchdowns this season. For fantasy purposes, he holds the potential to be your WR1, but ideally, I would love to draft him as a high end WR2 preferably in the early third round.

Dee-va!!!

Dee-va!!!

Michael Crabtree got paid! In December, Crabs signed a new 5-year, $35 million deal with the Raiders. What does that mean? To me, I think that means the “diva” can now slack off a bit since he isn’t playing for a new contract. It’s harsh to say, but I haven’t been a fan of his since he always found a way to miss training camp his first few years in the league. I question his motivation and that makes me question what his results will be this season. I don’t think he will fall off a cliff, but I think he goes from 85 to about 75 receptions for 850-900 yards and has six or seven touchdowns. That still isn’t horrible production, but considering he finished as the WR16 in PPR leagues last season, I think he’s no better than a third wide receiver for your fantasy team in 2016. If he falters, that could make Seth Roberts an intriguing target as he sneakily had five touchdowns last season. You could make him a late round flier, but if he goes undrafted, make sure to keep him on your watch list when the season begins.

Raiders Tight Ends

Clive Walford 2013 2014 2015
Games Played 16
Receptions 28
Rec Yards 329
Rec TDs 3

Second Year, tight end Clive Walford should be on your fantasy radar this season. He really came on down the stretch last year as 39 of his 51 targets came after Week 9. He only played in 447 out of the Raiders’ 1008 snaps on the season and since he’s a good blocker, I expect that number to go up dramatically this year. I think he has a legitimate shot to hit 50 receptions for 500-600 yards with six or more touchdowns this season. In my opinion, he is one of the more attractive TE2’s this season based on his upside, and if you like to draft a backup tight end with upside or are in a two-tight end league, Walford should be someone you keep your eye on come this draft season.

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The post 2016 Fantasy Football Team Preview: Oakland Raiders appeared first on Fighting Chance Fantasy.


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