We are only days away from the 2016 NFL football season and many of us have been waiting for this since the Super Bowl ended a half of year ago. Some of us have been preparing for months for the fantasy football season and while doing our research, I’m sure that there were some things that stood out to each of us. Below, I am going to share a few things that stuck out to me and make some bold predictions for the upcoming fantasy football season. Enjoy!
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Quarterback
I think Matt Stafford will give fantasy owners something to smile about this year.
Matthew Stafford (Det) will finish the season as a top five fantasy quarterback. Matthew Stafford is no stranger to throwing for a lot of yards. Over the past five seasons, he hasn’t thrown for less than 4,200 yards and also hit the 5,000 yard mark in 2011. However, many are predicting doom and gloom for him this season with no Calvin Johnson, as reflected by his QB15 average draft position on fantasyfootballcalculator.com. I want to tell you not to fall into the trap. The Lions may have lost Megatron, but they brought in Marvin Jones and Anquan Boldin, who while not to the talent level of Calvin Johnson (no one is), the Lions have a very formidable receiving corps.
They also have a very innovative, offensive coordinator in Jim Bob Cooter. Cooter took over halfway through the season and the results were remarkable. In the first half of the season under Joe Lombardi, the Lions averaged 18.6 points per game. Over the second half of the season under Cooter, they averaged over 26 points per game. He also was able to help Stafford, as the quarterback completed 70% of his passes in the second half and threw 19 touchdowns to only two interceptions. With a whole offseason working together, I think Stafford could very well throw for over 4,700 yards and 35 touchdowns and be a quarterback that could lead your team to a fantasy championship.
Blake Bortles (Jax) will finish as a QB15 or lower. Blake Bortles showed that he can hang with the the big boys, as he threw for over 4,400 yards and 35 touchdowns in 2015 and finished as the fourth best quarterback in fantasy football last year. Fighting Chance Fantasy partner, Ryan Hallam absolutely loves Bortles and is recommending drafting him wherever you can in 2016. I just want to warn you to pump the brakes a little bit.
It used to be rare for a quarterback to throw for over 4,000 yards in a season. In 2005, only two quarterbacks were able to hit 4,000 yards…Tom Brady (4,110) and Trent Green (4,014). Ten years later in 2015, 12 quarterbacks hit 4,000 yards and five of those threw for over 4,500 yards. With so many quarterbacks producing, there is very little room for error. There was only about 50 fantasy points that separated Bortles from the number 13 fantasy quarterback and over the course of 16 games, that equated to about 3 fantasy points per week. With the addition of Chris Ivory to pair with TJ Yeldon, I see the Jags running the ball more this season and that could take some opportunities away from Bortles. They also threw the ball a ton in garbage time last season and with likely an improved defense this year, I’m not sure those opportunities will be there again in 2016. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Bortles throw for less than 4,000 yards as well as fewer than 28 scores, and that could drop him significantly in fantasy football.
Running Back
DJ Foster (NE) will outscore both James White and Dion Lewis in PPR leagues. Who the hell is DJ Foster? Foster is an unrestricted, free agent running back out of Arizona State, who beat out Tyler Gaffney for one of the final spots on the Patriots opening day roster. He was a running back who converted to a wide receiver in college and in the Pats final preseason game, Foster caught nine of ten passes for 110 yards. With head coach, Bill Belichick’s penchant for the unexpected, I can see Foster getting an opportunity as the receiving back in the Patriots backfield. If so, he could potentially supplant James White and if he can hold off Lewis when he returns, be a nice back in PPR leagues. Foster is someone who you should keep an eye on the first few weeks of the season and be ready to place a waiver claim on him if he earns significant playing time.
If his leg holds out, Lance Dunbar could see a lot of targets this season.
Lance Dunbar (Dal) will finish as as a top 25 fantasy back in PPR leagues. Lance Dunbar was off to a great start last season for the Cowboys as he totaled 21 receptions for over 200 yards in just the first three games of the season. Then he suffered a torn ACL/Patellar tendon injury that cost him the rest of the season. He was expected to start the season on the PUP and miss at least the first six games of the year, but it looks like he’s recovered quickly and will begin the season on the opening day roster. A lot of people count out running backs who don’t run for a lot of yards, but last season Danny Woodhead, Theo Riddick and Duke Johnson all finished as a top 25 back in PPR leagues, despite the fact that none of them rushed for over 379 yards. The Cowboys brought in Ezekiel Elliott who is a very good receiver as well, but I think in an effort to keep Elliott fresh all year, a lot of that load will be placed on Dunbar’s shoulders. If he can carve out the role that he had last season, Dunbar has a very good chance to crack the top 25 in PPR leagues.
Wide Receiver
I’m kinda in love with Mike Evans this year. Don’t tell my wife…
Mike Evans (TB) will finish as a top five fantasy receiver. This may be my least “Bold” prediction of the bunch, but while many believe Mike Evans will be good this year, I think he can finish as a top five fantasy receiver. Evans enters his third season and I feel is ready to become elite. In his first season, Evans had about 1,000 yards, with a whopping 12 touchdowns. Last year he increased his yardage to over 1,200 yards but only had three touchdowns. It wasn’t for lack of trying however, as they still peppered him with looks in the red zone. Evans had 19 red zone targets in 2014 which led to his 12 scores, and still had 15 red zone targets in 2015. He wasn’t able to convert them into scores like he did as a rookie, but now that he and quarterback Jameis Winston have had a year to work together, I see that changing. With Vincent Jackson aging, not much wide receiver depth, and question marks at the tight end position, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Evans near 1,400 yards and double digit scores in 2015.
Allen Hurns (Jax) will finish outside of the top 35 fantasy wide receivers. Last season was a very good year for Allen Hurns as he finished with over 1,000 yards receiving, ten touchdowns and was the number 18 fantasy wide receiver in PPR leagues. I’m not quite so sure that he will be able to repeat those totals this year, however. As mentioned with Blake Bortles, I feel that Jaguars will rely more on the rushing game this season which could limit targets for Hurns. Julius Thomas missed the first five games of last season and Marqise Lee is healthy and having both of them in the offense could also limit passes in Hurns’ direction. Particularly with Julius Thomas who is a red zone magnet, I can see Hurns not being able to replicate his double digit touchdown production and ultimately turn him into a WR4 or WR5 rather than a WR2 like he finished last year. Buyer beware this season.
Tight End
Dwayne Allen (Ind) will challenge for the lead in touchdowns among tight ends. Dwayne Allen has a few things going for him this season. First is that he has Rob Chudzinski as his offensive coordinator and Chud loves to include the tight end into his offensive scheme. Second, is that former Colt tight end, Coby Fleener is now gone and that leaves Allen with a likely increase in targets for 2016. Finally, other than Donte Moncrief at 6’2″, the Colts lack some size for targets in the red zone. TY Hilton is 5’9″ and Phillip Dorsett is 5’10”, and with a running game that looks to be uninspiring this season, I can see Andrew Luck chucking the ball around near the goal line, which could benefit the tight end. Allen has also showed he can be good in the red zone as he had eight scores on 50 total targets in 13 games in 2014. Health has always been an issue with the big man, but if he stays healthy, I think he could see the end zone frequently in 2016.
Jimmy Graham will finish outside of the top 20 fantasy tight ends. Whereas Dwayne Allen as a lot of promising signs for him this season, Jimmy Graham has a lot of things that have his arrow pointing down. First of all, he is coming off a devasting patellar tendon injury and it’s not even a lock that he will be ready for the first week of the NFL season. Even if he is ready, Seattle is still a run-first team and have finished as a top three team as far as rushing attempts in each of the last four years. Finally, Graham struggled last season even when healthy, and with Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett, Jermaine Kearse and even Paul Richardson (don’t sleep on him this year), there aren’t a ton of passes to go around. Graham scares the hell out of me this season and I don’t see him being on any of my fantasy teams in 2016.
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