Atlanta Falcons

Head Coach: Dan Quinn (2nd year)
Offensive Coordinator: Kyle Shanahan (2nd year)
Defensive Coordinator: Richard Smith (2nd year)

Depth Chart

Quarterback: Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub
Running Back: Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, Brandon Wilds, Terron Ward
Wide Receiver: Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Justin Hardy, Nick Williams, Devin Fuller
Tight End: Jacob Tamme, Austin Hooper (r)
Kicker: Matt Bryant, Shayne Graham
Defense/Spec Teams: 2015-Finished 16th in yards against and 14th in points against. Finished 32nd in sacks and 10th in interceptions.

Coaching Philosophy

Last season was the first year of the Dan Quinn/Kyle Shanahan/Richard Smith era in Atlanta and at least offensively, it was a good year one. Shanahan is known for his outside-zone running scheme and as shown by the success of Devonta Freeman, it proved very effective. In year two, I expect to see a little more of Tevin Coleman, and the option to mix things up a bit may make the Falcons running attack even more potent in 2016. While quarterback, Matt Ryan had a decent year in terms of completion percentage and yards last year, he threw for only 21 touchdowns which was the lowest since his rookie season in 2008. I fear that the loss of Dirk Koetter may prevent Ryan from becoming the consistent, fantasy QB1 many had thought.

Fantasy Outlook

Falcons Quarterbacks

I’m a little concerned for Matt Ryan’s fantasy relevance this season.

Matt Ryan has thrown for at least 4,500 yards in each of his last four seasons and is always a good bet to throw for nice yardage totals. However, with Kyle Shanahan coming in and getting the running game going, I think we may see the team progress even more as a run-first team in year two of their regime, causing a slight regression. As mentioned, Ryan’s touchdowns also suffered in 2015 as he threw for the fewest scores (21) he’s thrown for since 2008. That was because Shanahan likes to run the ball in the red zone. Devonta Freeman was number one in the league in rushes inside the 20 (47), number two in rush attempts inside the ten (24) and number five in attempts inside the five yard line (11), so Ryan’s passing touchdowns may continue to suffer. He is also prone to the interception as he finished tied for third in the league in picks last season (16) and has thrown for double digit scores in all but one season. If your league gives negative points for interceptions, make sure to take that into consideration. The final thing that worries me a bit is that I don’t think there is a quarterback in the league whose production is tied as much to one wide receiver than Matt Ryan. If Julio Jones goes down, he will be left with the likes of Mohamed Sanu, Justin Hardy and Jacob Tamme and that doesn’t inspire fear into any defense. Right now, I can’t justify ranking Ryan as anything other than a low end QB2 that is nothing better than a bye week or injury replacement.

Falcons Running Backs

I’m not ready to give up on Devonta Freeman quite yet…

Last season was a fantastic year for Devonta Freeman. How great was it? Well he was the number one fantasy running back in PPR leagues by more than 50 points, and more than 100 points better than the number ten fantasy running back.  As a matter of fact, you could have cut his rushing yards and touchdowns in half and he still would have been a top five running back in PPR leagues. That’s why it surprises me to see Freeman currently getting drafted as the eighth running back off the board, typically in the middle or late of the second round. Yes, I do think that Tevin Coleman will be more involved in the rushing game this year, but not enough to knock him down significantly. He will also likely maintain his role in the passing game and considering he had 73 receptions in 2015, that’s a pretty big role. I’m predicting him for 700-800 yards this season with a similar role in the passing game and that makes him great value in the second round in my book.

The reason Freeman has dropped to the second round is because sophomore, running back Tevin Coleman is looking to become a bigger part of the offense in year two. He was set to take on a decent role last year until he suffered a rib injury, giving Freeman a chance to run away with the job early in the year. Everyone thinks that Coleman and Freeman will split carries, which they might, but offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan has a history of using one running back, so I’m not sure that Coleman will steal 50% of the team’s carries. Last season, the combination of Freeman and Coleman had a combined 351 carries. I think we could see a slight increase in that number this season, so let’s assume those two share in about 360 rushing attempts. I can see Freeman getting about 210 of those, to about 150 for Coleman. If he holds true to around four and a half yards per carry, that could give him around 700 rushing yards this year. Coleman had an issue with fumbles last season and with Freeman being very effective in the red zone last year, I think Freeman still gets more scores in 2016. While he may be one of the best handcuffs in football this year, he’s shouldn’t be expected much on a weekly basis while Freeman is healthy. No other running back is worth drafting on the Falcons roster.

Falcons Wide Receivers

Julio Jones is so good, he can stop in the middle of the game and sing the song, “Stop, in the Name of Love”.

There isn’t much not to like about the Falcons stud wide receiver, Julio Jones. Last season he finished tied for second in targets (203) and he was able to turn those into 136 receptions. He also followed up his 2014 season where he had almost 1,600 yards with almost 1,900 in 2015. This guy knows how how to catch the ball. Some may complain he’s not elite as far as scoring touchdowns, but he’s had at least eight scores in three of the four seasons he’s played at least 13 games. With the receptions and receiving yards begin where they are, I will gladly take eight touchdowns from Julio. I have him as my second wide receiver and overall pick off the board in fantasy leagues this year, and he should be a safe bet to rack up the fantasy points again in 2016.

I’m not in love with, and can’t endorse selecting any other of the Falcons receivers in 12 team leagues. Mohamed Sanu came over from Cincinnati and is a number three wide receiver playing as a number two receiver in Atlanta. He struggles with drops, only catches about 60% of his targets and doesn’t possess any standout physical attributes. Justin Hardy enters his second year and should see looks in three, wide receiver sets out of the slot, but looks to have a limited role in 2016. Beyond Jones, Sanu and Hardy, it’s anyone’s guess who will see much action on the field this year.

Falcons Tight Ends

The Falcons don’t have a tight end worth drafting in 12 team leagues this season. Jacob Tamme had a decent season in 2015, but Atlanta invested an early pick this year in Austin Hooper and I think both will see some action on the field, limiting the fantasy value of both. You can do better.

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