Wide Receivers are one of the harder positions to predict. Guys tend to move up and down the depth chart fairly quickly either with a couple of drops or on the flip side, gaining the trust of the quarterback. Obviously guys on teams that throw more will have more opportunities to help fantasy players. And while they are not listed here, players like Michael Thomas in New Orleans, Sammie Coates in Pittsburgh, Chris Hogan in New England, and Brice Butler in Dallas are guys who are attempting to fight up their team’s depth chart to make a fantasy impact this season. Wide receiver busts can happen with the play of the quarterback or even with injury. A change in coaching staff or coaching philosophy can also have a major impact on a receiver’s fantasy status. Below are four sleepers and four busts for you to consider heading into your drafts.
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Sleepers
Ryan
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals. After a standout college career at Pittsburgh, Boyd finds himself in a fantastic fantasy situation in Cincinnati. Not only do the Bengals love to throw the ball, but both Muhammad Sanu and Marvin Jones left this offseason opening the door for Boyd. Cincinnati did bring in Brandon LaFell, but he is dealing with a torn ligament in his hand. Not to mention I am being polite if I said LaFell has had a little problem with drops throughout his career. Even if LaFell is somehow healthy and can catch (a little less polite now), Boyd has an opportunity as a slot receiver on this team. He has some serious big play ability, and if he can earn the trust of Andy Dalton this preseason, he could have a bigger fantasy impact than the receivers drafted before him. I like Boyd a lot this year and he is going undrafted in some small rostered leagues.
Marvin Lewis: Tyler Boyd is taking advantage of his opportunities https://t.co/wEcEyOzs9j #fantasyfootball pic.twitter.com/0OmfBoYU8m
— Fantasy Sports News (@fantasysportsso) August 19, 2016
Devin Funchess, Carolina Panthers. It was a very uneventful rookie season for the Panthers second round pick in 2015, but he did show flashes of potential when given the opportunity. He finished the regular season off with a huge game, and had a decent playoffs. All of the reports in the preseason have been amazing for Funchess, even if he sits third on the depth chart. However, Kelvin Benjamin isn’t exactly flying back from his ACL tear, and do we really think that Ted Ginn is all that good? The man has hands of stone! Funchess has every opportunity to shine, and with his 6’4” frame, is also a great target in the red zone for Cam Newton if he can’t get it to Greg Olsen. Funchess is currently going in the 13th round, and is a great guy to take a chance on late in your draft.
Steve
Phillip Dorsett, Indianapolis Colts. Here’s the deal…the Colts offense sucked last season. With Andrew luck battling a rib injury and then ultimately losing the last seven games of the season to a lacerated kidney, the Colts had a hard time moving the ball. They finished third in total yards and first in passing yards in 2014 with Luck under center, but dropped to 28th in total yards in 2015 and 22nd in passing yards with him hurt. What a difference a good quarterback makes!
That’s why I really like Phillip Dorsett this season. Andrew Luck is back and that means the Colts should jump back up to the top of the NFL in offense this year. The Colts also have a poor defense which should force them to throw the ball a lot to stay in games. They have a rushing attack led by 33 year old, ineffective Frank Gore, so I see a heavy dose of Andrew Luck and company in 2016 as well. The Colts led the NFL in passing attempts in 2014 and I expect them to come close to that this year. Finally, Phillip Dorsett now has a year in the system and is a big play threat who has 4.33 speed and very explosive. Head coach Chuck Pagano has said they need to be more creative and get the ball in his hands more, so I see them making an effort to get him touches. He’s currently being drafted as the 56th receiver off the board in roughly the 12th round and I love the upside that Dorsett offers.
Bruce Ellington, San Francisco 49ers. Who in the heck is Bruce Ellington you say? Well, he’s likely going to be the starting slot receiver for the 49ers on opening day. Why is that important? Well, Chip Kelly is now the head coach of the Niners and he likes to throw the ball to the slot receiver in his system. Just ask Jordan Matthews from the Eagles. Not only that, but Kelly is known for running a ton of offensive plays. Over the last two seasons, his offenses ran the second most plays from scrimmage in 2014 and the most in 2015. There should be plenty of opportunities for Ellington to catch balls in Chip Kelly’s offense.
Word out of camp is that Ellington and quarterback, Blaine Gabbert have developed a great chemistry this offseason. I think it’s a very high likelihood the Niners will often be playing from behind this season and forced to pass a lot, so that could mean a lot of opportunities for Ellington. I like him better in PPR leagues than I do in standard leagues, but he’s definitely someone that I’m targeting as a late round flier.
Busts
Steve
Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia Eagles. Chip Kelly and his fast paced offense are now gone and in its place is Doug Pederson and his slow paced, West Coast offense. That means significantly fewer plays on offense are likely in store and could mean less targets for the talented receiver as well. Not only that, but under Chip Kelly, Matthews ran about 90% of his plays from the slot receiver position. Why is that important? Well, Pederson’s offense is very conservative and he runs many more two wide receiver sets than three. Historically, his two receiver sets didn’t include the slot receiver much and Pro Football Focus’ Neil Hornsby has speculated that Matthews could see up to 200 less snaps than he did in 2015. I don’t necessarily agree with that and Pederson would be smart to move Matthews around to keep him on the field, but regardless, there are a lot of red flags that are steering me away from drafting him in 2016.
After a breakout season, Steve expect Allen Hurns to be a disappointment, much like these awful uniforms
Allen Hurns, Jacksonville Jaguars. Jaguars wide receiver, Allen Hurns had a breakout season last year as he caught 64 balls for over 1,000 yards with ten touchdowns. He’s now entering his third season and people are looking to see if Hurns can take that “third year leap” that some think is the typical year we see receivers break out. I have my doubts.
The Jaguars added running back, Chris Ivory to the backfield this year and with second year back, TJ Yeldon, I see the Jaguars trying to establish the run more in 2016. They also get 2015 first round, pass rusher Dexter Fowler back who missed all of last year with an injury and they drafted cornerback, Jalen Ramsey and linebacker Myles Jack with their first two picks in this years’ draft. Their defense should be improved, so I don’t expect the Jags to be playing from behind as often and get as much garbage time production as they did last year. Finally, Julius Thomas missed the first month of last season and didn’t seem to develop much of a rapport with Blake Bortles until late in the season. Thomas is a fantastic red zone target and could steal a few scores from Hurns as well. All signs point to a regression from Hurns this year and should give you pause about drafting him too high in 2016.
Ryan
Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks. Coming into 2015, Baldwin had been a solid, yet unspectacular receiver. He was reliable, but far from anything great. In the first half of last season he was still average at best. The Seahawks sustained injuries to their top two running backs, and the team was forced to throw more. All of a sudden, Baldwin turned into Jerry Rice! In the last eight weeks of the season Baldwin caught 47 passes and 12 of those were touchdowns. Personally, I don’t believe that Seattle will throw that much again in 2016. Thomas Rawls is looking healthy, Christine Michael (while I don’t believe in him), is looking great, and Alex Collins could have a role too. I don’t think Baldwin will fall completely off the map, but he can’t live up to the late fourth round pick he is going to cost you.
Emmanuel Sanders, Denver Broncos. It has been a very successful last two seasons in Denver for Sanders, but I am afraid that he isn’t likely to make it three. His catches went from 101 in 2014 down to 76 in 2015, and I won’t be surprised if it falls some again. Denver is not going to be the pass first offense that they were in the past under a different coaching staff and a Hall of Fame quarterback. In four of his last five games in 2015 Sanders had five catches or less. I think this might be a more frequent theme this season. The Broncos are going to run, run, run, and when they are done with that they are going to run some more. He is in a contract year, but there just aren’t going to be enough passes to go around to make Sanders a viable sixth round pick. Unfortunately, there is no way that I see him living up to his draft status in 2016.
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