When I try to locate running back sleepers, there are two things I like to look at. The first is opportunity. Who is the starter on a team? What is the opportunity for the backup to take over the job at some point in the season? Whether it be for a lengthy injury history or just the starter not being a strong player, those are the places I like to look. The second is the offensive scheme. Who runs the ball a lot? Those second stringers have a chance to be fantasy relevant even if they aren’t getting all of the carries just because of sheer volume. As far as busts go, did the team bring in players to steal carries away? Does the player have a long injury history? Or do I just not feel they are very good? After looking at these factors here are two sleepers and two busts from both Ryan and Steve as we head into 2016.
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Sleepers
Ryan
Watch Devontae Booker have a real role in fantasy football in 2016
Devontae Booker, Denver Broncos. As I spoke in the intro about opportunity, it is knocking for Mr. Booker. A rookie out of Utah, he lands in a system that wants to run the ball an awful lot. That situation as more to do with coaching philosophy, but it also doesn’t help that they don’t really have a standout option at quarterback. It hasn’t taken long for Booker to pass Ronnie Hillman on the depth chart as the number two in Denver and there are rumblings that Hillman won’t even make the team. C.J. Anderson is the clear number one, but he was last year also, had never had more than 15 touches in a game. Even if Anderson does play the whole season and doesn’t get injured, there will be a role for Booker in this offense. He does have to work on his blocking to be an every down back, but if something was to happen to Anderson, Booker could be a huge fantasy contributor.
DeAndre Washington, Oakland Raiders. This team is a little more pass happy, but they also aren’t completely sold on their starter, Latavius Murray. As a Murray owner last season, I was happy with his 1,000 yards, but frustrated with his 4.0 yards per carry. Not to mention it seemed like the Raiders would often plant him on the bench in the second half and completely forget about him. He might be a fifth round pick, but Washington is a legitimate threat. Despite an average second preseason game, he was great in the opener. Washington is going to be the number two behind Murray, and if the starter continues to struggle to move the pile and avoid contact, look for a lot of Murray-less fourth quarters again in 2016. With all rookie runners, Washington needs to work on his blocking to get every down assignments, but he has a real chance to carve himself out a role early in the year.
Steve
James White, New England Patriots. News broke last weekend that Patriots, pass catching running back extraordinaire Dion Lewis had to have another surgery on his knee and will likely be out eight to ten weeks. Lewis was off to a great start last season before tearing his ACL and he ended up missing the rest of the year. Once Lewis went down, the Patriots plugged James White into Lewis’ role and he performed admirably.
Over the first half of the season with Dion Lewis healthy, White had seven receptions for 52 yards and no touchdowns. When he took over for Lewis in the second half, he had 33 receptions for 358 yards and four touchdowns. Over that stretch, he was the RB16 in standard leagues and RB10 in PPR leagues. He will obviously have most of his value come in PPR leagues, but he’s still worth a late round pick in standard leagues. The Patriots backfield is always a mystery, but James White is a back who can bring good value for the first few months of the season and possibly the whole year if Lewis has another setback.
Theo Riddick, Detroit Lions. Everyone talks about Ameer Abdullah. Blah blah big play ability. Blah blah upside. Blah blah booey!!! Please pardon the Howard Stern, Bababooey reference. Anyways, even if Abdullah explodes this season, Theo Riddick will still have a large role in the offense. While you might hear more hype around Abdullah, don’t forget about Riddick.
Did you know that Theo Riddick out scored Abdullah last year in fantasy points last year? Yup. Kinda by a lot too. In PPR leagues, Riddick finished as the RB18, whereas Abdullah finished as the RB43. He’s not a good runner, so he’s no threat to have double digit rushing attempts per game, but where he adds value is as a receiver. He had 80 receptions last season which tied Danny Woodhead for the most catches by a running back. He had ten games in which he had at least five receptions and in PPR leagues, he’s a nice guy you can plug into your flex spot. He’s currently being drafted as the 38th running back off the board in the eighth or ninth rounds and that’s very good value for someone who finished as a RB2 last year.
Busts
Steve
Father Time is calling for Matt Forte, will he avoid the call one more year?
Matt Forte, New York Jets. Matt Forte scares the hell out of me this year. First of all, he’s 30 years old and turns 31 during this season. That in itself, this isn’t necessarily a death sentence, but he has been a workhorse his entire career and has over 2,500 career touches. I feel like his body is set to breakdown from the wear and tear, sooner rather than later. After spending his entire career in Chicago, he is also learning a new system. Yes, he did have other head coaches and coordinators over his career, but you never know how a guy will fit into a particular system until he plays in it. Last season he also had career lows in rushing yards (898) and receptions (44). He did play in only 13 games, but that just reinforces my point that he may be breaking down. Finally, he has Bilal Powell competing for touches with him and Powell is basically a younger version of Forte. Powell is very good in the receiving game and I fear that he will steal a significant amount of touches from Forte. I feel that at this point in his career, Forte’s ceiling is a RB2 which is where he is being drafted, but there are enough red flags to make me feel that his floor is very, very low.
Latavius Murray, Oakland Raiders. Latavius Murray had a nice fantasy season last year. He rushed for over 1,000 yards, had six touchdowns and chipped in over 40 receptions causing him to finish as the RB10 in PPR leagues in 2015. So should you draft him as your RB1 this season? I’m going to tell you not to do it.
While his RB10 finish looks impressive, he didn’t really live up to the hype going into the year. He averaged a measly 4.0 yards per carry and a lot of his success was built on volume and he had only had five weeks where he had fewer than 15 rushing attempts. However, despite getting a lot of touches, he only scored more than 20 fantasy points two times, yet had eight weeks where he scored less than ten fantasy points in PPR leagues. That’s not good. The Raiders drafted running back, DeAndre Washington this year who could steal some of that volume away from him, and that makes me fear we may see a drop in fantasy production. I would like my top running back to have both a little higher ceiling and floor to be honest. His average draft position on fantasyfootballcalculator.com is 4.02 and that’s a little too steep for my liking.
Ryan
Ryan Mathews, Philadelphia Eagles. I’m not exactly sure what the Eagles were thinking when they didn’t go out and get a better starting running back than Mathews this offseason. Sure, he averaged 5.0 yards per carry last season, but that was on a pedestrian 107 carries. Outside of a couple of years, he has been average at best, and his injury history is a mile long. He has a history of fumbling problems as well, and overall is just not very good. I know he’s not being drafted as a high draft pick or among the first 15 running backs, but I don’t expect much of anything out of him in 2016. If Mathews was to surpass 700 yards and six touchdowns I would be surprised, but if he was eventually passed on the depth chart by Kenjon Barner, I would be far less surprised.
Arian Foster, Miami Dolphins. The minute that Foster signed with the Dolphins the Internet rejoiced and immediately anointed him as a great fantasy pick. I paused, reflected, and disagreed. First of all, this isn’t a great place for him to be. The Dolphins aren’t exactly a great running team, nor do they run a lot. With a talented back in Lamar Miller the past two years, he only averaged 205 carries per season. While in Houston, Foster would be near or over 300 per season. Second, he does have to deal with second year back, Jay Ajayi. Foster might have more experience, but the Dolphins did draft him, and seemed ready to make him the lead back before Foster popped up late. Foster has dealt with some serious injuries in his career, and is currently coming back from a nasty Achilles problem. And don’t forget that nasty neck injury that nearly ended his career a few years back. Finally, his head coach, Adam Gase, runs a pass first offense, so it is unlikely that either Foster or Ajayi get to that 200 carry mark. He is currently going early in the seventh round and I don’t see any way he lives up to that value.
The post 2016 Fantasy Football Running Backs Sleepers and Busts appeared first on Fighting Chance Fantasy.