Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Head Coach: Dirk Koetter (1st year)
Offensive Coordinator: Todd Monkin (1st year)
Defensive Coordinator: Mike Smith (1st year)

Depth Chart

Quarterback: Jameis Winston, Mike Glennon
Running Back: Doug Martin, Charles Sims, Mike James
Wide Receiver: Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, Adam Humpries, Louis Murphy, Kenny Bell
Tight End: Austin Seferian Jenkins, Cameron Brate
Kicker: Roberto Aguayo
Defense/Spec Teams: 2015-Finished 10th in yards against and 26th in points against. Finished 14th in sacks and 21st in interceptions.

Coaching Philosophy

What a difference a year makes! The Bucs were abysmal on offense in 2014 as they ranked 30th out of 32 teams in total yards. In 2015 however, two things happened to help the Bucs turn things around. Dirk Koetter was brought in as their offensive coordinator and Jameis Winston took over as quarterback, and because of those two things, they were able to go from the bottom of the league up to fifth in total offense. After one season as offensive coordinator, Koetter was promoted up to head coach and looks to continue the upward momentum for the Buccaneers offense in 2016. Koetter is known as a great developer of quarterbacks and in his three seasons with the Falcons, Matt Ryan saw his best three seasons as far as passing yardage. That’s good news for sophomore, quarterback Jameis Winston and we should see more improvements in the passing game in season two under Koetter.

Fantasy Outlook

Buccaneers Quarterbacks

Jameis Winston is becoming the leader that the Bucs have hoped he would become.

Before starting each of my team previews, I usually look back to the one from the previous year and see what my thoughts were a year ago. Reading last year’s preview of the Buccaneers, I was very skeptical on quarterback Jameis Winston until I watched him on Jon Gruden’s quarterback camp special and after seeing how mature he was and such a student of the game, it changed my perception of him. That’s exactly what I’m hearing about Winston from training camp this year, is how hard he’s worked and how much of a leader he has become in the clubhouse. Coach Dirk Koetter has said he wants to put more on the quarterback’s plate this season and “test the boundaries” of the offense. I like the sounds of that from a fantasy perspective. Winston has shed about 20 pounds from last season and I think we see both an improvement in passing yards and touchdowns from him in 2015. It’s very possible we see 4,300-4,400 yards with 26-28 passing touchdowns from Winston. I don’t think we see another six rushing touchdowns from him, but his slimmer physique may allow him to scramble a little more and get a few extra rushing yards. All in all, Jameis Winston is a high upside QB2 that has the possibility of outperforming his draft position.

Buccaneers Running Backs

Fantasy owners are hoping the muscle hamster stays healthy in 2016.

In his four years in the league, I have not been able to quite figure out Doug Martin. The years I’m not expecting much, he does well. The years I think he will do well, he stinks and goes down with an injury. With that said, whatever I say next, make sure to do the opposite because I have sucked predicting his fantasy success.

Instead of saying whether I like him this year, I’m going to take a different route and say that when he’s healthy, he’s been a very nice fantasy producer. He’s been in the league for four years and in the two years he’s played in all 16 games, he’s rushed for at least 1,400 yards and averaged at least 4.6 yards per carry. However, in his other two years in the league, he’s missed a total of 15 games and only averaged about 3.7 yards per carry. So will he be healthy this year? I think it was Dirty Harry who said, “Do you feel lucky, punk”?  Let’s say this, I would have Doug Martin higher up my rankings if I could trust his health. As is, I have him as a borderline RB1 that if healthy can be a good candidate for 1,400 yards and eight or so touchdowns.

Martin likely won’t be involved as much as he used to catching passes because of Charles Sims.  Sims enters his third season in the league and has become very involved in the passing game. He had 51 receptions last season and surprisingly finished as the RB17 in PPR leagues. Not only was he good at catching passes, but he was pretty effective in the rushing game as he had over 100 rushing attempts and averaged 4.9 yards per carry. It remains to be seen if Sims would be the handcuff for Martin if he goes down, but regardless, Sims has value in PPR leagues. He’s currently being drafted as the RB37 off the board and he should definitely be someone to target  in PPR leagues this year.

Buccaneers Wide Receivers

Mike Evans has seen a ton of red zone targets his first two years in the league and that trend should continue this year.

The Buccaneers wide receiver unit is lead by third year, wide receiver Mike Evans. Evans first two years in the league have been very productive and fantasy football players are hoping they see the “third year breakout” that some people believe in. In Evans’ rookie campaign, he was shot out of a cannon as he had 68 receptions for over 1,000 yards. His 19 red zone targets, also allowed him to finish with very nice total of 12 touchdowns. In his second year, he did even better with 74 receptions for 1,206 yards but he only caught two of his 15 red zone targets and that pushed his touchdown total from 12 scores down to three. He still got the looks, but unfortunately things didn’t go his way in the end zone. Evans is 6’5″ and 231 pounds so I don’t think the Bucs are going to stop targeting him in the red zone and I don’t think his poor production in scoring position will continue. I feel Evans could push for 1,300 yards and double digit scores this year and is a low end WR1 or very high end WR2 who you should target in the middle to late second round of fantasy drafts this year.

Lining up opposite of Evans will be 33 year old, Vincent Jackson. Jackson struggled with both poor production and a knee injury (MCL) in 2015, causing him to have a year to forget. In the four seasons prior to last, Jackson had at least 115 targets and 1,000 yards receiving each year. However, he missed six games in 2016 and even when he did play, he only saw one game over 100 yards receiving and three total games over 70 yards in his ten played. While I think we see a rebound from last season, I fear his best fantasy days are behind him. My projections have him for around 60 catches for 900 yards and I’m not confident drafting him in anything other than a later round pick this season.

It looks like the third, wide receiver duties will go to second year slot receiver Adam Humphries. Humphries saw limited action last year and had 27 catches for 260 yards and one score for the Bucs. He’s the prototypical slot guy being 5’11”, 195 pounds and white (I couldn’t resist) but I just don’t see him being valuable in fantasy leagues in this Tampa Bay offense. With the big arm that quarterback Jameis Winston has, Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson should see a majority of the “down the field” targets while Tampa also has two good tight ends in Austin Seferian Jenkins and Cameron Brate that could eat away at the “underneath” targets. Throw in a good receiving running back in Charles Sims and Humphries may be lacking for looks all season. Leave him and the rest of the Bucs receivers alone on draft day.

Buccaneers Tight Ends

The Buccaneers tight end position is shaping up to be kind of a mess this season. Austin Seferian Jenkins is a physically talented tight end who made some mistakes early in training camp and lost his place on the depth chart to Cameron Brate. Brate doesn’t have the physical tools that ASJ has, but is dependable and been one of Jameis Winston’s favorite targets in camp. The reason I say it’s been a mess is because Seferian Jenkins has started turning things around recently and now has been named the starter for the Bucs’ third preseason game, which is like the “dress rehearsal” for the first week of the season. If you’re going to draft one of their tight ends, make sure its ASJ. He has much more upside and has the physical gifts to perform as a TE1 if things go right. With the uncertainty at the position, I can’t endorse selecting him as anything other than a late round flier that would serve as your backup tight end, but he has the upside to be a stud

You can follow me on Twitter at @fantasygeek37 and email me questions at steve@fightingchancefantasy.com.

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