With the 24 hour information age, Twitter, the Internet, etc, sleepers barely exist as we get constant information about everyone. Busts on the other hand still live on as we all have players who we think are going to absolutely tank, or are going to produce far below their average draft position. So, while we might not define sleepers as guys we don’t know who will break out, it will be players who will far outperform their ADP. Both Steve and Ryan have sleepers and busts at the quarterback position, and the following are those players.
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Sleepers
Ryan
Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans. The second overall pick in the 2015 draft, Mariota had an up and down rookie season. At times he looked very good, and sometimes we didn’t see his best. The team couldn’t muster any sort of running game, so the Titans relied heavily on their rookie quarterback. In eight of the twelve games he started, Mariota had at least 30 pass attempts. He was a great improviser, and seemed to be at home when plays broke down.
The Titans went out and signed free agent Demarco Murray and drafted Derrick Henry. Tennessee is designed to be a run heavy team in 2016. I don’t see Mariota having that many games where he has 30+ attempts this upcoming season. His receiving group isn’t full of household names, but it certainly wasn’t last year either. Tight end Delanie Walker is among the best in fantasy, and the team also brought over Rishard Matthews from Miami. I see Mariota as the perfect QB2, as a guy who you don’t have to trust to be your starter, but could either be great injury insurance or a trade chip a few weeks into the season. He is also a great runner, which adds to his value. I could see Mariota throwing for 3,500 yards with 25-27 passing touchdowns this season.
Steve
No Calvin Johnson? I say no problem for Matt Stafford.
Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions. Calvin Johnson is gone, so that means that Matthew Stafford shouldn’t be on your fantasy radar this season, right? Wrong. He still has Golden Tate and emerging tight end, Eric Ebron, but the Lions also added the top free agent, wide receiver Marvin Jones as well as veteran, Anquan Boldin. The cupboard isn’t bare and while there is a risk associated with Stafford losing one of the top receivers in the league, he has possibly the highest upside of any QB2 this year.
Over the last five seasons, Stafford has finished in the top seven in pass attempts and thrown for at least 4,200 yards in each year. With the Lions having average talent at the running back position as well as a suspect defense, I expect the attempts will be there for him in 2016 as well. He also has offensive coordinator, Jim Bob Cooter (no joke) now calling plays. Cooter took over halfway through last season and Stafford’s production under him was remarkable. Through the first half of the season, Stafford threw for 2,083 yards, 13 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. In the second half under the creative Cooter, Stafford threw for 2,179 yards, 19 touchdowns and only two interceptions. With a whole season to prepare under Jim Bob, the sky could be the limit for Stafford this season.
Busts
Ryan
Injuries=concerns for Tony Romo and is fantasy football production.
Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys. I know this one might seem like an easy one, but I’m using it anyway. It was an absolute disaster of a season for Romo as he broke his collarbone in Week 2, and that kept him out until Week 11. A funny thing happened in Week 12 when Romo broke his collarbone again, which ended his season. Even when he was in there, Romo wasn’t good as he threw five touchdowns against seven interceptions in four games. After Dez Bryant, Romo doesn’t have anyone else that you would even mistake for an average receiver, which also doesn’t help his value.
If Romo can stay healthy, he has been a very good fantasy quarterback, but he is now 36 years old, and injuries linger longer as you age. A quarterback with a very fragile collarbone is not someone that I am overly thrilled to have on my team. All it will take is some fat ass defensive lineman to sack him and drive him into the ground, and Romo’s collarbone could be snapping like the wishbone from the Thanksgiving turkey. With the influx of young quarterback talent lately like Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, and Jameis Winston I no longer see Romo as a QB1, and think he could be in for a very disappointing 2016.
Steve
Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars. I want to start by saying that I don’t necessarily expect Blake Bortles to be a “bust” this season. However, replicating his production from last year and living up to 2016 average draft position may prove to be a tall tale.
Bortles threw for over 4,400 yards with 35 touchdowns last year and finished as the fourth highest fantasy scoring quarterback. However, this season things may be a little different. The Jags added Chris Ivory to complement TJ Yeldon, so I expect them to try and establish their running game this year, which likely means fewer attempts for Bortles. They also get last year’s first round, pass rusher Dexter Fowler back and they drafted cornerback, Jalen Ramsey and linebacker Myles Jack in the NFL draft this year. Their defense should be much better, and that may mean a lot less garbage time production from Bortles than he saw in 2015. I don’t think the floor will entirely drop out for him this year, but I think there is a decent chance he’s drafted as a QB1 but produces as a QB2.
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