Seattle Seahawks

Head Coach: Pete Carroll (6th year)
Offensive Coordinator: Darrell Bevill (6th year)
Defensive Coordinator: Kris Richard (2nd year)

Depth Chart

Quarterback: Russell Wilson, Trevone Boykin (r)
Running Back: Thomas Rawls, Christine Michael, CJ Prosise (r), Alex Collins (r)
Wide Receiver: Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett, Jermaine Kearse, Paul Richardson
Tight End: Jimmy Graham, Luke Willson
Kicker: Steven Hauschka
Defense/Spec Teams: 2015-Finished 2nd in yards against and 1st in points against. Finished 17th in sacks and 13th in interceptions.

Coaching Philosophy

I think it’s fair to say that the Seattle Seahawks are a run first team. I don’t think that’s going to surprise many people. However, there is a shift that’s been slowly going on in Seattle. Since the Seahawks drafted quarterback, Russell Wilson in 2012, they have given him more control of the offense each year. If you look at their team rushing and passing attempts below, each year Wilson has had more pass attempts. With Marshawn Lynch now retired, I think that trend continues again in 2016.

Rushing Attempts

2012: 536 attempts (1st in the league)
2013: 509 attempts (2nd in the league)
2014: 525 attempts (2nd in the league)
2015: 500 attempts (3rd in the league)

Pass Attempts

2012: 405 attempts (32nd in the league)
2013: 420 attempts (31st in the league)
2014: 454 attempts (32nd in the league)
2015: 489 attempts (28th in the league)

Here’s an interesting observation. Marshawn Lynch was injured in a Week 10 game against Arizona. In the first nine games of the season, Wilson threw for 2,118 yards and ten touchdowns. In the final seven games of the season without Lynch, Wilson threw for 1,906 yards and a whopping 24 touchdowns. I still expect a lot of rushing attempts this season, but don’t avoid their passing attack on draft day this year.

Fantasy Outlook

Seahawks Quarterbacks

This is a picture of Aaron Rodgers welcoming Russell Wilson into the club of elite, fantasy quarterbacks.

I am admittedly a Russell Wilson fan boy. I’m not quite sure why, but I think a large part of it may be that Fighting Chance Fantasy partner, Ryan Hallam absolutely hates the Seahawks and I get to play the part of antagonist by rooting for him. I think a larger part however, may be that he’s been a stud in fantasy leagues. That was highlighted last season, when he had career best numbers in pass attempts, passing yards, completion percentage and touchdowns, and he finished as the number three fantasy quarterback. Time for an encore! I already showed that after Marshawn Lynch exited with injury, Wilson was a fantasy stud. In case you hadn’t heard, Lynch is now retired and in his place is Thomas Rawls, who performed fantastic last year but is a bit banged up. They also have the usually disappointing, Christine Michael and a couple of rookies. I think we see Wilson get a few more pass attempts than he did in 2015 and once again break 4,000 passing yards. We could see a regression in passing touchdowns, but if we still see 27-29 with his 600 or so rushing yards, he’s set for another top five fantasy season. If you like to draft a quarterback early, Wilson offers similar upside to Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton, but can be had a few rounds later.

Seahawks Running Backs

Thomas Rawls is happy as beans to be recovered from his ankle injury.

The Seahawks backfield is in flux after perennial bell cow back, Marshawn Lynch decided to hang up the cleats. Before last season, Lynch was a lock for 280 carries and now it will be interesting to see how their backfield shakes out. The candidate to lead them in carries in 2016 is Thomas Rawls, who was an undrafted, free agent rookie last year. When Lynch went down with injury, Rawls was fantastic as he had over 100 yards rushing in four of the six games in which he received at least 15 carries. He topped it off with a 209 yard performance against the Niners in Week 11. However, he suffered a fractured ankle and had to have surgery, and he’s just now starting to practice. If healthy, he could be a force for the Seahawks in 2016. He averaged an amazing 5.6 yards per carry last season and that was behind a poor offensive line. The line isn’t supposed to be much better this season, but he’s proven he can effective in this system. With others pushing for carries, I don’t think he becomes a 1,500 yard rusher, but 1,000-1,100 with eight or nine touchdowns is a realistic goal. With health being a big concern, as is a competition for carries, I see Rawls as more of a RB2 than a RB1.

One of those guys pushing Rawls for carries is longtime disappointment, Christine Michael. This guy has all the skills, but he’s reportedly lacked maturity and it’s limited his playing opportunities. Head coach, Pete Carroll has said that at times he was a “loose cannon”, but that appears to be behind him now and he’s looked fantastic in training camp. He’s become a very intriguing player and has now moved himself into fantasy drafts as a late round guy. If Rawls gets hurt, Michael looks to be the next in line, making him a very attractive handcuff who will likely get some looks even with Rawls on the field.

The Seahawks also drafted a few rookie, running backs this year as well in CJ Prosise and Alex Collins. Prosise is a fantastic receiving back who was actually a slot receiver before being switched to running back while at Notre Dame. I expect him to immediately see some of the receiving duties and while he likely won’t be a big fantasy producer in year one, I think he could hold lower end value in PPR leagues and be selected in the early, double digit rounds. Collins is more in the mold of Rawls and likely won’t see much time or fantasy impact in 2016.

Seahawks Wide Receivers

Last year, Doug Baldwin had a season for the ages. Let me rephrase that. Last year Doug Baldwin had a “second half of the season” for the ages. Over the first eight games of the year, Baldwin had 31 receptions for 345 yards and two touchdowns. Meh. Then, he exploded out of nowhere in the second half and had 47 receptions for 724 yards and 12 touchdowns. That’s quite the difference. So which Doug Baldwin will we see this year? Well, I think it will be a bit of both. Over the whole season, Baldwin’s receptions, yards and yards per receptions weren’t way out of line for a guy who was becoming a larger part of the offense. In fact, he only had six more targets in 2015 than he did in 2014. However, his touchdowns were bonkers and I expect to see some regression there. I expect him to have similar receptions and yardage totals, but I think six to eight scores is a little more reasonable. He’s a nice WR3 with upside, that can be drafted in the fifth or possibly sixth round of drafts this year.

Are you the type of fantasy player who likes to swing for the fences? Tyler Lockett may be a nice target for you this year.

One of the hot names of fantasy drafts this season is Tyler Lockett. Look, I get it. He’s a young, exciting player that when I watched him last year, he’s a big play waiting to happen. I just have doubts that there will be the volume to bring him value for where he’s currently being drafted in the sixth or seventh round. Seattle will still run the ball a ton and with Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse and Jimmy Graham, I worry that he won’t have the opportunity to live up to the hype. I think he sees modest improvements in receptions and yards with similar success in touchdowns this season.. He is a high upside/low floor guy that quite honestly, I’m a little worried won’t quite live up to the hype.

Finally, Jermaine Kearse should be the third wheel, limiting the value of both Baldwin and Lockett. Even though Seattle was a run first team, they ran three wide receiver sets plenty of times last season (ninth in the league), so there could be some opportunity for Kearse. He will likely only have a few fantasy worthy weeks, making him more of a DFS play than season long guy. If Baldwin or Lockett miss anytime to injury, Kearse would make a nice waiver wire add.

Seahawks Tight Ends

Many people thought Jimmy Graham would move from New Orleans to Seattle and remain one of the top fantasy tight ends in the NFL. That didn’t happen. Whether is was the New Orleans offense or the magnificence of Drew Brees, Graham only had double digit fantasy points (PPR) in five of his eleven games. Not only that, but he suffered a ruptured patella tendon  in Week 12 and missed the rest of the season. That injury has shown to be one of the most difficult injuries to come back from and he’s still in doubt for Week 1. Even if he is ready, this injury has shown that it’s hard to produce the same as “pre-injury” and I have serious concerns for his fantasy production in 2016. I can’t put him as a TE1, and I see him more as a mid range TE2 based on his production in Seattle and seriousness of his injury. Buyers beware.

You can follow me on Twitter at @fantasygeek37 and email me at steve@fightingchancefantasy.com. You can like are Facebook page right here.

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