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2016 Fantasy Football Team Preview: Dallas Cowboys

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Dallas Cowboys

Head Coach: Jason Garrett (7th year)
Offensive Coordinator: Scott Linehan (3rd year)
Defensive Coordinator: Rod Marinelli (3rd year)

Depth Chart

Quarterback: Tony Romo, Dak Prescott (r)
Running Back: Ezekiel Elliott (r), Darren McFadden, Alfred Morris, Lance Dunbar
Wide Receiver: Dez Bryant, Terrance Williams, Cole Beasley, Brice Butler, Devin Street
Tight End: Jason Witten, James Hanna
Kicker: Dan Bailey
Defense/Spec Teams: 2015-Finished 17th in yards against and 16th in points against. Finished 25th in sacks and 30th in interceptions.

Cowboys 2013 (NFL rank) 2014 (NFL Rank) 2015 (NFL Rank)
Total Yards 341.1 yds/game (16th) 383.6 yds/game (7th) 335.1 yds/game (22nd)
Total Passing 247.1 yds/game (14th) 236.5 yds/game (16th) 216.9 yds/game (27th)
Total Rushing 94.0 yds/game (24th) 147.1 yds/game (2nd) 118.1 yds/game (9th)

Coaching Philosophy

Scott Linehan has always been a pass happy, offensive coordinator but since he’s been in Dallas, the Cowboys have become much more of a rushing team. They have one of the best offensive lines in the league and since health is always a concern with quarterback, Tony Romo, I think we see a heavy reliance on the backfield once again this season.

Fantasy Outlook

Cowboys Quarterbacks

Tony Romo 2013 2014 2015
Games Played 15 15 4
Pass Yards 3,828 3,705 884
Pass TDs 31 34 5
Interceptions 10 9 7
Rush Yards 38 61 13
Rush TDs 0 0 0
We've seen way too much of this over the last few years.

We’ve seen way too much of this over the last few years.

Tony Romo scares the hell out of me. Not only did he miss a majority of the season due to a broken collarbone last year, but he has also dealt with some serious back problems thoughout the years. As a person who has dealt with chronic back issues myself and at times walk around like I’m 80 years old, I worry about the dude taking hits and being able to stand up and continue on as normal.

Not only is health a concern, but his play has also slipped a little in recent years. In 2011-2013, he threw for over 300 yards five, nine and four times, respectively. He played a total of 19 games in 2014 and 2015 and he combined for only two 300 yard games over that span. I think this just shows that the Cowboys want to lean on the rushing game to limit hits on Romo and keep him healthy.  With drafting Ezekiel Elliott in the first round in the draft, I just have a hard time feeling comfortable predicting him returning to the 4,000+ yard passer he once was. The best I can do unfortunately, is call him a lower end QB2 due to his health concerns and potential game flow. If you have an unsteady situation for your QB1, I would maybe look elsewhere than Tony Romo.

Cowboys Running Backs

Darren McFadden 2013 (Oak) 2014 (Oak) 2015 Alfred Morris 2013 (Wash) 2014 (Wash) 2015 (Wash)
Games Played 10 16 16 Games Played 16 16 16
Attempts 114 155 239 Attempts 276 265 202
Yards 379 534 1,089 Yards 1,275 1,074 751
Yards/Attempt 3.3 3.4 4.6 Yards/Attempt 4.6 4.1 3.7
Rush TDs 5 2 3 Rush TDs 7 8 1
Receptions 17 36 40 Receptions 9 17 10
Rec Yards 108 212 328 Rec Yards 78 155 55
Rec TDs 0 0 0 Rec TDs 0 0 0
This guy is a beast of a human being.

This guy is a beast of a human being.

The Cowboys had a need at running back and they addressed that need by selecting Ezekiel Elliott with the fourth overall pick in the NFL draft this year. Elliott has the potential to step right in from day one and become on the best fantasy running backs this season. He’s 6’0′, 225 pounds and ran a 4.47 40 yard dash at the combine. He’s a beast to bring down as he was one of only two running backs in college to rush for 1,000 yards after contact last year. He’s also a very good pass catcher and graded out as the Pro Football Focus’ top blocking running back in the nation last year as well. If you think he will only see first and second down duties, think again.

Not only is Elliott a good runner and receiver, but he’s also playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. How good is it? Well, in the three seasons before Darren McFadden came to Dallas, he averaged a putrid 3.3 yards per carry over that span. Last season with the Cowboys after the Week 6 bye, McFadden averaged over 4.7 yards per carry and finished as the 13th highest scoring fantasy running back in PPR leagues last year. If they can turn a turd like Darren McFadden into a fantasy star, what can they do with someone with the talent of Elliott? He tweaked his hamstring and looks like he may miss a week or so of camp, but as of now, I’m not scared in the least of that. He also has been accused of domestic violence, but until more facts come out, I will assume he plays all 16 games. If he does, I think he has a legitimate shot to finish as a top three fantasy back regardless of format. Many think he should be a second round pick, but I feel good enough about him to put him in the bottom of round one.

As far as his handcuff, I have a feeling it would be a dreaded, running back by committee. I can see Alfred Morris becoming the early down back, while McFadden or Lance Dunbar is the third down/receiving back. Dunbar is recovering from a torn MCL and patella tendon however, and is very questionable to start the season healthy. McFadden is also recovering from a broken elbow, but all indications are that he will be ready for Week 1. If you put a gun to my head and asked me which one will have the most value if Elliott goes down, I would say to pick McFadden. He has a year under his belt in the system and is a much better receiver than Morris as well.

Cowboys Wide Receivers

Dez Bryant 2013 2014 2015 Terrance Williams 2013 2014 2015 Cole Beasley 2013 2014 2015
Games Played 16 16 9 Games Played 16 16 16 Games Played 14 16 16
Receptions 93 88 31 Receptions 44 37 52 Receptions 39 37 52
Rec Yards 1,233 1,320 401 Rec Yards 736 621 840 Rec Yards 368 420 536
Rec TDs 13 16 3 Rec TDs 5 8 3 Rec TDs 2 4 5
It was a long season for Dez Bryant last year but now healthy and his starting quarterback set to return, things are looking up.

It was a long season for Dez Bryant last year but now healthy and his starting quarterback set to return, things are looking up.

I’m going to write off the 2015 season for Dez Bryant. Bryant dealt with injuries all season and with Tony Romo only playing in a handful of games, Bryant was destined for a rough year. He’s back and healthy now and looks to once again become a top five fantasy tight end. In his three seasons before last, Dez was a lock for around 90 receptions, 1,200+ yards and at least 12 touchdowns. The only thing that scares me off a bit is if (or when), Romo goes down, will Dez be able to still be a fantasy producer? I think that depends who the Cowboys rope in to be their backup quarterback. Kellen Moore was their number two until he went down with a broken ankle and will likely miss a majority of the season. Rumor has it that they are looking to possibly make a move for someone of the likes of Josh McCown to fill that role, and if they do, I feel good about Dez. If they stay put and say rely on rookie, Dak Prescott to be the backup, I’m a little nervous. Either way, I think his return to health should bring his value way back up and he can be drafted late in the first round.

After Dez however, the Cowboys wide receiver group is shaky, at best. Terrance Williams has annually disappointed and even with Bryant injured last season, still saw only 52 receptions. Even in the high scoring world of PPR leagues, he had nine of his 16 games go for less than 10 fantasy points and only topped 20 points, once all season. I’m taking a pass on him. Cole Beasley is their slot receiver, which should mean he is more valuable in PPR leagues, but yet only scored more than ten fantasy points in four games. I’m going to look elsewhere. Brice Butler has been playing strictly the X-receiver job in training camp, which is what Dez plays, so it looks like he may only hold value if Bryant goes down to injury. In a nutshell, draft Dez and leave the other Cowboys’ receivers alone on draft day.

Cowboys Tight Ends

Jason Witten 2013 2014 2015
Games Played 16 16 16
Receptions 73 64 77
Rec Yards 851 703 713
Rec TDs 8 5 3

Jason Witten had a slight resurgence last season and showed us that he isn’t ready to be set out to pasture quite yet. He had almost 80 receptions for over 700 yards last year, and finished as a top ten, fantasy tight end. He’s now 34 years old now and I’m not quite sure just how much he has left in the tank. I don’t think he will necessarily fall off a cliff this season, but with age, an injury prone quarterback, and the fact that the Cowboys will likely run the ball a ton this year, I feel most comfortable putting Witten as a mid-range TE2 rather than a borderline TE1. He was consistent last year, but never had more than 17 fantasy points in a game (PPR format), so I would prefer to draft my backup as a guy with more upside like Ladarius Green, Martellus Bennett or Eric Ebron (if healthy), over Witten.

 

The post 2016 Fantasy Football Team Preview: Dallas Cowboys appeared first on Fighting Chance Fantasy.


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