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2016 Fantasy Football Team Preview: Denver Broncos

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Denver Broncos

Head Coach: Gary Kubiak (2nd year)
Offensive Coordinator: Rick Dennison (2nd year)
Defensive Coordinator: Wade Phillips (2nd year)

Depth Chart

Quarterback: Mark Sanchez, Paxton Lynch (r), Trevor Siemian
Running Back: CJ Anderson, Ronnie Hillman, Devontae Booker (r)
Wide Receiver: Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Cody Latimer, Bennie Fowler, Jordan Norwood
Tight End: Jeff Heuerman, Virgil Green, Garrett Graham
Kicker: Brandon McManus
Defense/Spec Teams: 2015-finished 1st in yards against; 4th in points against (1st in sacks; 13th in interceptions)

 

2013 (NFL rank) 2014 (NFL rank) 2015 (NFL rank)
Total Offense 457.3 yds/game (1st) 402.9 yds/game (4th) 355.5 yds/game (16th)
Total Passing 340.2 yds/game (1st) 291.3 yds/game (4th) 248.0 yds/game (14th)
Total Rushing 117.1 yds/game (15th) 111.6 yds/game (15th) 107.4 yds/game (17th)

Coaching Philosophy

It took Gary Kubiak exactly one year with Broncos to turn them from one of the best passing offenses in the league, to a well-balanced offense where they finished 14th in the NFL in passing yards and 17th in the league in rushing yards. Was it because Peyton Manning was playing injured and a shell of his former self in 2015? I’m sure that had something to do with it. Kubiak also likes to run his zone blocking running scheme, so knowing that Manning was at the tail-end of his career, I’m sure it was imperative to try and take some of the pressure off of his quarterback. The Broncos threw for almost 50 yards less per game in 2015 than they did in 2014 and with Peyton Manning (retired) and Brock Osweiler (now with Houston) gone and replaced by Mark Sanchez and rookie, Paxton Lynch, I see the Broncos trying to rely heavily on their rushing attack in 2016. Kubiak has turned the likes of Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Reuben Droughns and Steve Slaton into 1,000 yard rushers, so it will be interesting to see if CJ Anderson can get back on track this season or if Ronnie Hillman or rookie, Devontae Booker will see a major role in the offense. Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders will still get theirs, but with the rest of their pass attack lacking in talent, I expect a rush-heavy offense in Denver this season.

Fantasy Outlook

Broncos Quarterbacks

Mark Sanchez 2013 (Jets) 2014 (Eagles) 2015 (Eagles) Paxton Lynch 2013 (College) 2014 (College) 2015 (College)
Games Started N/A 8 2 Games Started 12 13 13
Pass Yards N/A 2415 616 Pass Yards 2056 3031 3778
Pass TDs N/A 14 4 Pass TDs 9 22 28
Interceptions N/A 11 4 Interceptions 10 9 4
Rush Yards N/A 87 22 Rush Yards 127 321 239
Rush TDs N/A 1 0 Rush TDs 2 13 2
Bye Bye Peyton Manning...hello Paxton Lynch.

Bye Bye Peyton Manning…hello Mark Sanchez.

Out with the old and in with the new. Gone is future Hall of Famer, Peyton Manning and his supposed heir apparent, Brock Osweiler, and in their place is Mark Sanchez and rookie, Paxton Lynch. So what should we expect from the quarterback position for the Super Bowl Champion Broncos? First of all, I expect Mark Sanchez to win the starting job to begin the season. There have been rumblings in camp that last years’ seventh round draft pick, Trevor Siemian could win the job this offseason, but I think that’s very unlikely. For a team as good as Denver and hoping to repeat as champs, I feel that they will be more comfortable with the experience of Sanch-ize rather than lean on a rookie or a second year quarterback in Siemian, who has zero career pass attempts in the NFL. What makes it hard for fantasy purposes, is that I don’t expect him to hold on to the role all season. I don’t know when we can expect to see Lynch, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him at the helm in mid-season. Since they have two of the better wide receivers in the league in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, whoever is playing quarterback could have some fantasy relevant weeks.

For fantasy purposes, I wouldn’t recommend owning any of them in anything but two quarterback or the deepest of leagues. Keep an eye on how Lynch performs in the offseason because if he looks good, he could be nice guy to stash on your bench in deep leagues, in case he takes over the role over the course of the season.

Broncos Running Backs

CJ Anderson 2013 (Den) 2014 (Den) 2015 (Den) Ronnie Hillman 2013 (Den) 2014 (Den) 2015 (Den)
Games Started 5 15 15 Games Started 10 8 16
Attempts 7 179 152 Attempts 55 106 207
Yards 38 849 720 Yards 218 434 863
Yards/Attempt 5.4 4.7 4.7 Yards/Attempt 4 4.1 4.2
Rush TDs 0 8 5 Rush TDs 1 3 7
Receptions 0 34 25 Receptions 12 21 24
Rec Yards 0 324 183 Rec Yards 119 139 111
Rec TDs 0 2 0 Rec TDs 0 1 0

Head coach Gary Kubiak and his zone blocking scheme has churned out some very good performances from some very sub-par, performers. As mentioned before, the likes of Olandis Gary and Mike Anderson have rushed for over 1,000 yards, so hopefully we could see the same performance from CJ Anderson, Ronnie Hillman or Devontae Booker, right? Let’s dig a little deeper. Kubiak has stated this off season that CJ Anderson is capable of carrying the load, but considering Ronnie Hillman has carved out a definite role in the offense and some reports say that the Broncos really like fourth round pick, Devontae Booker, I’m not sure I buy it. Here’s how I see things going. The Broncos ran 443 rush plays in 2014 and 411 in 2015. With Mark Sanchez, a second year-seventh round draft pick and a rookie competing for the job of quarterback, I think 450 team rushes are a definite possibility regardless of who wins the quarterback gig. Last season, CJ Anderson had exactly one game during the regular season where he had 15 or more carries. However, he did manage 15+ carries in all three postseason games though, so maybe that means he was finally earning the trust of his head coach. I can see him handling about 50% of the carries with Hillman and Booker picking up the rest and at 450 team carries, that would leave about 220 carries for Anderson. He’s averaged 4.7 yards per carry the last two seasons, so if he were to stay the same or have a slight improvement, I can see him rushing for almost 1,100 yards. I think Hillman and Booker will play a role in the receiving game and that makes me think that Anderson will be closer to the 25 catches in 2015 than the 34 in 2014. I think he will be their primary goal line back, so nine or ten touchdowns is attainable and that should make him a very nice RB2 in fantasy this season.

For fantasy purposes, I can see Hillman being the primary handcuff to Anderson. I don’t expect him to have enough weekly value to be worth using in your flex spot, but would be worth owning if you own Anderson. I think Booker is going to eased into the offense, limiting his 2015 value. He is a good pass catching, running back that can make good cuts (effective in Kubiak’s system) but lacks top end speed. Anderson isn’t exactly a burner either, so it will be interesting to see how this backfield shakes out over the next few years as I can see Booker slowly becoming more and more involved in the offense. For this season however, I would consider him nothing more than a late round flier in redraft leagues.

Broncos Wide Receivers

Demaryius Thomas 2013 (Den) 2014 (Den) 2015 (Den) Emmanuel Sanders 2013 (Pit) 2014 (Den) 2015 (Den)
Games Started 16 16 16 Games Started 10 16 15
Receptions 92 111 105 Receptions 67 101 76
Rec Yards 1430 1619 1304 Rec Yards 740 1404 1135
Rec TDs 14 11 6 Rec TDs 6 9 6
Some experts are expecting doom and gloom for Demaryius Thomas this season. Demaryius and I just don't see it that way.

Some experts are expecting doom and gloom for Demaryius Thomas this season. Demaryius and I just don’t see it that way.

The Broncos have two, top wide receivers in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, but not much else behind them. Even though they are both really good, I worry about their season with Mark Sanchez or Paxton Lynch chucking them the ball. Manning wasn’t great last season, but there is a chance that Broncos fans will be calling for him to come out of retirement once they get a load of Sanchez. Considering that Demaryius Thomas had a “bad year” last season and still caught 105 receptions for over 1300 yards, he has a pretty high floor. With a lack of targets beyond Thomas and Sanders, I still think Demaryius has a legitimate shot to near 90-95 catches and 1,200+ yards. Eight touchdowns could be a reasonable goal for him as well. For Sanders, I don’t think he will see 101 receptions like he did in 2014, but 75+ for 1,000 yards and seven or eight touchdowns is realistic.

Cody Latimer and Bennie Fowler will likely compete for the third wide receiver, but unless there’s an injury to Thomas or Sanders, neither are worth rostering in redraft leagues.

Broncos Tight Ends

It looks like second year tight end, Jeff “High-erman” Heuerman will have the inside track at tight end for the Broncos this year. He missed all of his rookie season with an ACL tear, so this is essential his rookie season. We all know how well rookie tight ends perform, so I don’t hold out much hope that he will be fantasy relevant this season. He will also likely split time with Virgil Green and Garrett Graham and that could make all three rather irrelevant. It’s worthy monitoring in training camp to see if one of them starts taking hold of the role, but it looks like a situation I personally want to stay away from.

You can follow me on Twitter @fantasygeek37 and email me questions at steve@fightingchancefantasy.com. We also encourage you to like our Facebook page right here.

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The post 2016 Fantasy Football Team Preview: Denver Broncos appeared first on Fighting Chance Fantasy.


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